Traders' Library Blog

The Most Important Step In Your Trading

 

I’ve taught thousands and thousands of people how to make money trading. Yet a big percentage never actually trade. They take the time and spend the money to come to my class and then never do anything.

 

This drives me nuts. I know that they will make money if they follow the Rules I teach. But they don’t.

 

So think about it. Let’s say they would make just $10,000 per year for the rest of their life. Let’s say they live 40 more years. That’s $400,000 they will never see! And that doesn’t count any compounding!

 

Lack of confidence is the usual reason. How can you overcome that? Here are two ways.

 

 

Get An Accountability Partner

 

Find another trader, preferably from one of my classes so you have the same knowledge. Get together at least once a week. Go over trades. Go over your emotions. Urge each other to keep going and follow the Rules.

 

 

Get A Mentor

 

A mentor is even better because it will dramatically increase the time to profitability. A mentor can provide a number of very high values:

 

1. Encouragement

2. Focus

3. Knowledge

4. Nuance

5. Guidance

 

 

Options University has just relaunched their mentorship programs and they are amazingly powerful. Click here for info.

 

Courtney Smith
Options University
Support@OptionsUniversity.com
OptionsUniversity.com

 

 

Is The Bear Market Over? Or Was That A Dead Cat Bounce?

 

 

Hello Trader,

 

The market rallied sharply yesterday. Was that the end of the bear market?

 

I don’t think so. Instead, I think it is what is called a dead cat bounce. Let’s break it down.

 

Note how the market was accelerating to the downside as we went through the week of December 17.  It culminated with a sharp down day on Friday on extremely high volume. This was followed on Monday with another sharp down day but on small volume. (Of course volume was light on Monday because it was the day before Christmas.)

 

I believe that Friday/Monday was what is called a capitulation bottom. That is formed when the bulls capitulate and give up being bullish. That is actually bullish because it means there are no more people left to sell.

 

But does that mean the bear market is over? No.

 

It simply means that we are going to rally over the near term. I would look for a rally back up to as high as 2600 on the S&P. At that point I will assume the bear market will resume.

 

But, conditions are very unsettled. The best thing is to subscriber to Wall Street Winners so you can get my official opinion plus killer trade ideas.

 

Click here to learn more.  or go to http://courtneysmith.com/is-the-bear-market-over-or-was-that-a-dead-cat-bounce

 

Thanks!

 

Good trading,

Courtney Smith

 

 

Wealthbuilder LLC

888.464.8666

 

 

Why Options Are Almost Always Better Than Stocks

Here’s several reasons:

 

1. More leverage

2. Better risk management

3. Lower initial investment

4. Greater diversification

 

There is one drawback and that is that liquidity in options is often worse than the underlying stock.

 

Nonetheless, options trading can dramatically increase your profits and, at the same time, reduce risk!

 

But you have to do it right! So many people do it wrong!

 

We are having a flash sale on our Options 101 course. Click here to learn more.

 

The price is usually $497 but we are dramatically lowering it to $97.

 

We really want you to understand options so you can take advantage of the significant advantages they can give you.

 

Thanks!

 

Good trading,

Courtney Smith

 

P.S. The Flash Sales ends at Friday midnight so order the course now by  clicking here!

 

 

 

 

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 13, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: " Note the negative divergence with a higher top in price but, a lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I assume price will move further down the coming week." Friday the index fell to a low of 2868 finding support at the S1 pivot support, the 50 day simple moving average, the low side of the volatility band and at price support and resistance levels. There is a good chance for an up pullback the coming week but, I expect a continuation of the down move after that. First down target is around 2800. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I wrote: "Note the negative divergence with a higher top in price but, a lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I assume price will move further down the coming week." Monday and Tuesday there was some pullback but, Wednesday the index passed my expected target of 2800. Thursday there was another large move down reaching a low of 2710. Friday finally there was some recovery. I think we finished the impulse wave 3 down and are now making an up correction for wave 4. The convergent bottoms in the index and the SRSI indicator confirm that there is a correction coming, not a reversal. I assume this correction will go up between 2800 a 61.8% Fibonacci retrace and the bottom of previous waves 4 and (4). This correction may go up to 2830 where there is resistance from the S2 Pivot support and the 200 bar average. After this correction I expect the index to turn back down to make lower lows.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 6, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "One week ago the index reached a higher top, possibly the top of a longer term wave [5]. The past week we see a pullback closing the gap in the last up move. Price moved close, up to the R1 pivot resistance. Note the negative divergence with a higher top in price but, a lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I assume price will move further down the coming week. However, we have to keep in mind that the year-end is coming close and a magical 3000 level is not far away. The reaction may still be limited for now. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I wrote: " Note the negative divergence with a higher top in price but, a lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I assume price will move further down the coming week." Friday the index fell to a low of 2868 finding support at the S1 pivot support, the 50 day simple moving average, the low side of the volatility band and at price support and resistance levels. There is a good chance for an up pullback the coming week but, I expect a continuation of the down move after that. First down target is around 2800. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 29, 2018.

A few weeks ago I wrote: "About 3 weeks ago we were looking for the price gap to be closed or not. It was closed the week after. I tried another wave count, impulse waves instead of correction waves. With that count we were at the top of a wave (3) and had to expect a higher wave (5). Arrived at this new wave five top, we have a first reaction down. I assume there will be a smaller wave b correction coming the next week.

Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view"

One week ago the index reached a higher top, possibly the top of a longer term wave [5]. The past week we see a pullback closing the gap in the last up move. Price moved close, up to the R1 pivot resistance. Note the negative divergence with a higher top in price but, a lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I assume price will move further down the coming week. However, we have to keep in mind that the year-end is coming close and a magical 3000 level is not far away. The reaction may still be limited for now. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chartand monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 8, 2018.

I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

Last week I wrote: "The index went some points higher the past week but, closed the week lower with a gap on Friday. Let's see if this gap will be closed the coming week. If not, this could be together with the negative divergence between the index and the stochastic indicator, a good sign that the down move is started. We should expect the start of a down reversal based on the following rules:

- Expecting a wave 1 or A down. 
- The last move up is a completed correction wave.
- Price is at the upper side of the volatility channel. 
- The stochastic RSI is showing a negative divergence second time in a row. 
- The index is close to price resistance and a Fibonacci target.

Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

 

About 3 weeks ago we were looking for the price gap to be closed or not. It was closed the week after. I tried another wave count, impulse waves instead of correction waves. With that count we were at the top of a wave (3) and had to expect a higher wave (5). Arrived at this new wave five top, we have a first reaction down. I assume there will be a smaller wave b correction coming the next week.

Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: August 11, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The index probably finished a correction wave 2 and, we should expect the start of wave 3 down based on the following rules:

- Expecting a wave 3 down. 
- The index is close to price resistance and the 161.8% Fibonacci target resistance.
- Price is at the upper side of the volatility channel.
- The stochastic RSI is showing a negative divergence second time in a row.

The coming week will be important to watch for the start of wave 3 down or?

Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

 

The index went some points higher the past week but, closed the week lower with a gap on Friday. Let's see if this gap will be closed the coming week. If not, this could be together with the negative divergence between the index and the stochastic indicator, a good sign that the down move is started. We should expect the start of a down reversal based on the following rules:

- Expecting a wave 1 or A down. 
- The last move up is a completed correction wave.
- Price is at the upper side of the volatility channel. 
- The stochastic RSI is showing a negative divergence second time in a row. 
- The index is close to price resistance and a Fibonacci target.

Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 28, 2018.

I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

Last week I wrote: "There is a nice negative divergence between the index with a higher top and the stochastic RSI with a lower top. Meaning we can expert a continuation of the medium term down move. This looks confirmed with the end of wave C, also the end of higher order wave (C) and longer term wave [B]. Furthermore with an index current high around 2820 we are very close to the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected over the end of wave [A] and the end of wave A. Watch your long positions because if this is correct you should expect a move down in first instance to 2480. That is more then 300 points down or more than 10%. This target is given assuming a more or less equal size for the wave [A] and the expected wave [C] from the top reference of wave [B]. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The index went higher the past week reaching the 161.8% last Fibonacci target but, fell back on Friday. You can see two consecutive higher tops in price but, lower tops in the stochastic RSI. Most probably the reversal for wave [C] has started. The correction wave uptrend to downtrend reversal is possibly started based on the following rules:Expecting a wave 1 after a larger downward candle.

- The index is near the top of the volatility band.
- The last move up is a completed correction wave.
- The stochastic RSI is showing a negative divergence.
- The index is at the 161.8% Fibonacci target and resistance level.

Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 21, 2018.

Last week I wrote: The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The index moved higher with a gap. You should expect this gap to be closed in a couple of weeks. It looks like there is a negative divergence building between the index and the stochastic RSI indicator. A confirmation of the lower top in the SRSI will force a down move. For now I expect the main trend to remain a downward move for the medium and long term. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

There is a nice negative divergence between the index with a higher top and the stochastic RSI with a lower top. Meaning we can expert a continuation of the medium term down move. This looks confirmed with the end of wave C, also the end of higher order wave (C) and longer term wave [B]. Furthermore with an index current high around 2820 we are very close to the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected over the end of wave [A] and the end of wave A. Watch your long positions because if this is correct you should expect a move down in first instance to 2480. That is more then 300 points down or more than 10%. This target is given assuming a more or less equal size for the wave [A] and the expected wave [C] from the top reference of wave [B]. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 14, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Note I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. Last week I mentioned: "We can expect some further correction the coming week(s). Possibly we will see a wave 2 retrace. In that case the index will stay below the top of wave b. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave." I believe the wave 2 correction has started and will most probably move a bit higher the coming week towards the R1 pivot resistance of the month. Of course it should not move above the current wave b top. If that would be the case the index will probably move above the current wave B and will become the new wave B. For now the main trend will remain downwards for the medium and long term. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The index moved higher with a gap. You should expect this gap to be closed in a couple of weeks. It looks like there is a negative divergence building between the index and the stochastic RSI indicator. A confirmation of the lower top in the SRSI will force a down move. For now I expect the main trend to remain a downward move for the medium and long term. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 30, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The first targets are the 100 average and the price support around the same level, next the 200 average and again more price support existing at that level. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Note I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The index went below 2700 and closes the week lower at 2718. There is support from the 100 day average, the low side of the volatility band and previous gaps and price levels. There is also a hidden divergence with a higher index bottom and a lower indicator bottom. We can expect some further correction the coming week(s). Possibly we will see a wave 2 retrace. In that case the index will stay below the top of wave b. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 23, 2018.

06/02 I wrote: "Last week I mentioned that the gap of the week before was not closed but that this could still happen the past week. The gaps at the start of wave A and the start of wave a, are still not closed, not a good sign and, it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the last top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Note I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The first targets are the 100 average and the price support around the same level, next the 200 average and again more price support existing at that level. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chartand monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 26, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "We got as expected the small further up move the past week. The small gap at the start of the a correction wave is not closed yet. Maybe this will still happen the coming week. If this gap is not closed it is not a good sign and it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the current top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

We got again a small further up move the past week. The small gap at the start of the week is closed. However, the gap of the week before is not closed yet. Maybe this will still happen the coming week. If the gaps at the start of wave A and the start of wave a, are not closed it is not a good sign and it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the current top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 19, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "In my last comment I wrote" There may be a small further move up to complete the wave e of the triangle formation. That should be the end of the triangle correction followed by a continuation of the down move." The index moved up to the R1 pivot resistance. It looks like we are still missing a small move up to complete the b-correction wave. Best estimate is a move up to 2750. That will close the first gap that appeared near the start of the a-wave. Moving down from that level, there is a gap to fill from last week Thursday. First target for this move is the S1 pivot support target followed by, the S2 pivot support target. The S2 target is confirmed by a 161.8% Fibonacci projection over the first part of the b-wave. Another confirmation is given projecting the size of the A-wave from the top of the B-wave, the red vertical line. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

We got as expected the small further up move the past week. The small gap at the start of the a correction wave is not closed yet. Maybe this will still happen the coming week. If this gap is not closed it is not a good sign and it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the current top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 12, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The low of the week was around 2595. The pullback on Friday closed the week just a bit lower compared to the week before. The index found support on the 200 day simple moving average and the low side of the Bollinger bands. Note the triangle formation with lower tops and higher bottoms. Assuming that the index is in a downtrend started with wave A, we now have the triangle waves abcd completed. There may be a small further move up to complete the wave e. That should be the end of the triangle correction followed by a continuation of the down move. First target for this move is the S1 pivot support target followed by, the S2 pivot support target. The S2 target is confirmed by a 161.8% Fibonacci projection over the b-wave and by the size of the b-wave down from the top of the b-wave, the blue arrow down. Another confirmation is given projecting the size of the A-wave from the top of the B-wave, the red vertical line. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

In my last comment I wrote" There may be a small further move up to complete the wave e of the triangle formation. That should be the end of the triangle correction followed by a continuation of the down move." The index moved up to the R1 pivot resistance. It looks like we are still missing a small move up to complete the b-correction wave. Best estimate is a move up to 2750. That will close the first gap that appeared near the start of the a-wave. Moving down from that level, there is a gap to fill from last week Thursday. First target for this move is the S1 pivot support target followed by, the S2 pivot support target. The S2 target is confirmed by a 161.8% Fibonacci projection over the first part of the b-wave. Another confirmation is given projecting the size of the A-wave from the top of the B-wave, the red vertical line. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 28, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The 'b' wave correction went up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (grey) over the a-wave down, the upper side of the Bollinger band and the 100-day average. I assume this will be the end of the b-wave up correction. The expert colored the candles green but, I would not open a long position because, I think the b-wave is complete and we should expect a continuation of the downtrend to targets 2550 and 2400 completing the C-wave. These targets are respectively the S1 and S2 support levels of the current month, confirmed by a downward 161.8% Fibonacci projection (red) over the 'b' correction wave. Furthermore, the b-wave correction is additionally confirmed by a hidden divergence with, a lower price and a higher Stochastic RSI indicator. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Closing the past week at the same level as the week before. There is a fair chance a short term impulse wave down is started now completing correction wave 2. Meaning I am expecting impulse wave 3 down with a target at 2550. I assume this impulse wave will end at 2450 to complete the C-correction wave. Price is now at resistance from the PP-pivot level of the month and previous price resistance levels. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 21, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The past week made another pullback to the PP-pivot level of the month. This level is also the 50% retrace over the last wave 'a' down. My feeling is that the up correction will probably go up a fraction higher to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace or even more if the current wave is a wave '2' and not a wave 'b'. The funny thing is that if the 61.8% retrace is reached and we make a Fibonacci projection down over the 'b' wave that moment in time, the 161.8% target is exactly the S2-pivot target level. I am still expecting this 2450 level as the next low target. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The 'b' wave correction went up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (grey) over the a-wave down, the upper side of the Bollinger band and the 100-day average. I assume this will be the end of the b-wave up correction. The expert colored the candles green but, I would not open a long position because, I think the b-wave is complete and we should expect a continuation of the downtrend to targets 2550 and 2400 completing the C-wave. These targets are respectively the S1 and S2 support levels of the current month, confirmed by a downward 161.8% Fibonacci projection (red) over the 'b' correction wave. Furthermore, the b-wave correction is additionally confirmed by a hidden divergence with, a lower price and a higher Stochastic RSI indicator. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 14, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The low past week reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target. Last week I mentioned: "I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance." From the low of the week, there was an up correction to a previous price high and, the PP pivot level of the month. There is a convergent move between the index and the SRSI indicator. This usually means that the last up move is just a correction and that the down move will continue after the correction. It looks like Friday the downtrend resumed. Nearby targets are at 2550 and 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The past week made another pullback to the PP-pivot level of the month. This level is also the 50% retrace over the last wave 'a' down. My feeling is that the up correction will probably go up a fraction higher to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace or even more if the current wave is a wave '2' and not a wave 'b'. The funny thing is that if the 61.8% retrace is reached and we make a Fibonacci projection down over the 'b' wave that moment in time, the 161.8% target is exactly the S2-pivot target level. I am still expecting this 2450 level as the next low target. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 7, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I predicted a pullback writing: "A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected." I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance. This is the level around 2700. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this correction phase. The first down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The low past week reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target. Last week I mentioned: "I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance." From the low of the week, there was an up correction to a previous price high and, the PP pivot level of the month. There is a convergent move between the index and the SRSI indicator. This usually means that the last up move is just a correction and that the down move will continue after the correction. It looks like Friday the downtrend resumed. Nearby targets are at 2550 and 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/