Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 21, 2018.

Last week I wrote: The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The index moved higher with a gap. You should expect this gap to be closed in a couple of weeks. It looks like there is a negative divergence building between the index and the stochastic RSI indicator. A confirmation of the lower top in the SRSI will force a down move. For now I expect the main trend to remain a downward move for the medium and long term. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

There is a nice negative divergence between the index with a higher top and the stochastic RSI with a lower top. Meaning we can expert a continuation of the medium term down move. This looks confirmed with the end of wave C, also the end of higher order wave (C) and longer term wave [B]. Furthermore with an index current high around 2820 we are very close to the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected over the end of wave [A] and the end of wave A. Watch your long positions because if this is correct you should expect a move down in first instance to 2480. That is more then 300 points down or more than 10%. This target is given assuming a more or less equal size for the wave [A] and the expected wave [C] from the top reference of wave [B]. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 14, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Note I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. Last week I mentioned: "We can expect some further correction the coming week(s). Possibly we will see a wave 2 retrace. In that case the index will stay below the top of wave b. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave." I believe the wave 2 correction has started and will most probably move a bit higher the coming week towards the R1 pivot resistance of the month. Of course it should not move above the current wave b top. If that would be the case the index will probably move above the current wave B and will become the new wave B. For now the main trend will remain downwards for the medium and long term. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The index moved higher with a gap. You should expect this gap to be closed in a couple of weeks. It looks like there is a negative divergence building between the index and the stochastic RSI indicator. A confirmation of the lower top in the SRSI will force a down move. For now I expect the main trend to remain a downward move for the medium and long term. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 30, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The first targets are the 100 average and the price support around the same level, next the 200 average and again more price support existing at that level. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Note I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The index went below 2700 and closes the week lower at 2718. There is support from the 100 day average, the low side of the volatility band and previous gaps and price levels. There is also a hidden divergence with a higher index bottom and a lower indicator bottom. We can expect some further correction the coming week(s). Possibly we will see a wave 2 retrace. In that case the index will stay below the top of wave b. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 23, 2018.

06/02 I wrote: "Last week I mentioned that the gap of the week before was not closed but that this could still happen the past week. The gaps at the start of wave A and the start of wave a, are still not closed, not a good sign and, it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the last top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Note I have removed all Google adds. Please let me know if you still would encounter one on any page of the site.

The gaps at the start of wave A are still not closed. This is a bad sign because, if it is not happening now it may take a long time in the future pointing in the direction of a long term downtrend reaction. The first targets are the 100 average and the price support around the same level, next the 200 average and again more price support existing at that level. Medium term we should expect a wave C down past the low of wave A around 2450. That would complete the C-wave with the same size as the A-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chartand monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 26, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "We got as expected the small further up move the past week. The small gap at the start of the a correction wave is not closed yet. Maybe this will still happen the coming week. If this gap is not closed it is not a good sign and it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the current top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

We got again a small further up move the past week. The small gap at the start of the week is closed. However, the gap of the week before is not closed yet. Maybe this will still happen the coming week. If the gaps at the start of wave A and the start of wave a, are not closed it is not a good sign and it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the current top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 19, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "In my last comment I wrote" There may be a small further move up to complete the wave e of the triangle formation. That should be the end of the triangle correction followed by a continuation of the down move." The index moved up to the R1 pivot resistance. It looks like we are still missing a small move up to complete the b-correction wave. Best estimate is a move up to 2750. That will close the first gap that appeared near the start of the a-wave. Moving down from that level, there is a gap to fill from last week Thursday. First target for this move is the S1 pivot support target followed by, the S2 pivot support target. The S2 target is confirmed by a 161.8% Fibonacci projection over the first part of the b-wave. Another confirmation is given projecting the size of the A-wave from the top of the B-wave, the red vertical line. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

We got as expected the small further up move the past week. The small gap at the start of the a correction wave is not closed yet. Maybe this will still happen the coming week. If this gap is not closed it is not a good sign and it may take a long time before being closed in the future. The first down target is the 200-day average and the low side of the Bollinger band. The target for the C-wave correction is around 2450, completing a C-wave with the same size as the A-wave, also the 161.8% Fibonacci target over the current top and the start of the b-wave. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 12, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The low of the week was around 2595. The pullback on Friday closed the week just a bit lower compared to the week before. The index found support on the 200 day simple moving average and the low side of the Bollinger bands. Note the triangle formation with lower tops and higher bottoms. Assuming that the index is in a downtrend started with wave A, we now have the triangle waves abcd completed. There may be a small further move up to complete the wave e. That should be the end of the triangle correction followed by a continuation of the down move. First target for this move is the S1 pivot support target followed by, the S2 pivot support target. The S2 target is confirmed by a 161.8% Fibonacci projection over the b-wave and by the size of the b-wave down from the top of the b-wave, the blue arrow down. Another confirmation is given projecting the size of the A-wave from the top of the B-wave, the red vertical line. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

In my last comment I wrote" There may be a small further move up to complete the wave e of the triangle formation. That should be the end of the triangle correction followed by a continuation of the down move." The index moved up to the R1 pivot resistance. It looks like we are still missing a small move up to complete the b-correction wave. Best estimate is a move up to 2750. That will close the first gap that appeared near the start of the a-wave. Moving down from that level, there is a gap to fill from last week Thursday. First target for this move is the S1 pivot support target followed by, the S2 pivot support target. The S2 target is confirmed by a 161.8% Fibonacci projection over the first part of the b-wave. Another confirmation is given projecting the size of the A-wave from the top of the B-wave, the red vertical line. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 28, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The 'b' wave correction went up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (grey) over the a-wave down, the upper side of the Bollinger band and the 100-day average. I assume this will be the end of the b-wave up correction. The expert colored the candles green but, I would not open a long position because, I think the b-wave is complete and we should expect a continuation of the downtrend to targets 2550 and 2400 completing the C-wave. These targets are respectively the S1 and S2 support levels of the current month, confirmed by a downward 161.8% Fibonacci projection (red) over the 'b' correction wave. Furthermore, the b-wave correction is additionally confirmed by a hidden divergence with, a lower price and a higher Stochastic RSI indicator. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Closing the past week at the same level as the week before. There is a fair chance a short term impulse wave down is started now completing correction wave 2. Meaning I am expecting impulse wave 3 down with a target at 2550. I assume this impulse wave will end at 2450 to complete the C-correction wave. Price is now at resistance from the PP-pivot level of the month and previous price resistance levels. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 21, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The past week made another pullback to the PP-pivot level of the month. This level is also the 50% retrace over the last wave 'a' down. My feeling is that the up correction will probably go up a fraction higher to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace or even more if the current wave is a wave '2' and not a wave 'b'. The funny thing is that if the 61.8% retrace is reached and we make a Fibonacci projection down over the 'b' wave that moment in time, the 161.8% target is exactly the S2-pivot target level. I am still expecting this 2450 level as the next low target. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The 'b' wave correction went up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace (grey) over the a-wave down, the upper side of the Bollinger band and the 100-day average. I assume this will be the end of the b-wave up correction. The expert colored the candles green but, I would not open a long position because, I think the b-wave is complete and we should expect a continuation of the downtrend to targets 2550 and 2400 completing the C-wave. These targets are respectively the S1 and S2 support levels of the current month, confirmed by a downward 161.8% Fibonacci projection (red) over the 'b' correction wave. Furthermore, the b-wave correction is additionally confirmed by a hidden divergence with, a lower price and a higher Stochastic RSI indicator. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 14, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "The low past week reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target. Last week I mentioned: "I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance." From the low of the week, there was an up correction to a previous price high and, the PP pivot level of the month. There is a convergent move between the index and the SRSI indicator. This usually means that the last up move is just a correction and that the down move will continue after the correction. It looks like Friday the downtrend resumed. Nearby targets are at 2550 and 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The past week made another pullback to the PP-pivot level of the month. This level is also the 50% retrace over the last wave 'a' down. My feeling is that the up correction will probably go up a fraction higher to the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace or even more if the current wave is a wave '2' and not a wave 'b'. The funny thing is that if the 61.8% retrace is reached and we make a Fibonacci projection down over the 'b' wave that moment in time, the 161.8% target is exactly the S2-pivot target level. I am still expecting this 2450 level as the next low target. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: April 7, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I predicted a pullback writing: "A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected." I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance. This is the level around 2700. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this correction phase. The first down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The low past week reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target. Last week I mentioned: "I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance." From the low of the week, there was an up correction to a previous price high and, the PP pivot level of the month. There is a convergent move between the index and the SRSI indicator. This usually means that the last up move is just a correction and that the down move will continue after the correction. It looks like Friday the downtrend resumed. Nearby targets are at 2550 and 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

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Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 30, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450." The past week the index moved down to the PP level of the month and price support. This support only lasted a couple of days and was broken with a gap, now reaching exactly the 200 days average. A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this possible correction. The down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I predicted a pullback writing: "A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected." I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance. This is the level around 2700. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this correction phase. The first down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 24, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "A week ago the index reached the upper side of the volatility band with a new higher top. The past week there was a correction bringing the index down to the 50-day average. There is a negative divergence between the higher top in price and lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I mentioned: "I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450." The past week the index moved down to the PP level of the month and price support. This support only lasted a couple of days and was broken with a gap, now reaching exactly the 200 days average. A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this possible correction. The down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 17, 2018.

STwo weeks ago I wrote: "As expected last week the index finished the wave B up correction on Tuesday and started the move down for Correction wave C. As I already mentioned with the weekly chart, the B retrace is rather large which possibly means the the correction is not a B-wave but, rather an impulse wave 2 correction. For now I just leave the current annotation because, both expect a further move down. The first target is 2450. If it is a wave 3 that is coming, the first target will be lower to around 2380. Note the negative divergence (1) higher tops in price and lower tops in the SRSI indicator that announced the first move down from top [5]. Next there is a convergent move (2) that made us expect a correction wave B up. And now another convergent move with lower tops or a hidden divergent move that informs us to expect a continuation of the previous down move. There is resistance for an up move with static price resistance and resistance of the PP-Pivot level of the month. Better be prepared for a continuation of the downtrend. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

A week ago the index reached the upper side of the volatility band with a new higher top. The past week there was a correction bringing the index down to the 50-day average. There is a negative divergence between the higher top in price and lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

 

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 3, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "Closing the week a fraction higher. Last week I mentioned: "With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave" But, perhaps I overlooked the other possibility meaning, the index is not making a first ABC correction but, a 5-impulse wave down for a longer term wave A correction. If that is the case the index now makes the wave 2 correction. Since a wave 2 correction can retrace up to 100% of wave 1, the index may go further up to the last top. That will be confusing because you will be thinking that the up move is continuing. If the index moves further up now, the chance that we are making a correction wave 2 becomes more lightly. Looking at the Elliott count in the weekly chart, even making a higher top is not impossible. All rather confusing for the moment. A close follow up is needed! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

As expected last week the index finished the wave B up correction on Tuesday and started the move down for Correction wave C. As I already mentioned with the weekly chart, the B retrace is rather large which possibly means the the correction is not a B-wave but, rather an impulse wave 2 correction. For now I just leave the current annotation because, both expect a further move down. The first target is 2450. If it is a wave 3 that is coming, the first target will be lower to around 2380. Note the negative divergence (1) higher tops in price and lower tops in the SRSI indicator that announced the first move down from top [5]. Next there is a convergent move (2) that made us expect a correction wave B up. And now another convergent move with lower tops or a hidden divergent move that informs us to expect a continuation of the previous down move. There is resistance for an up move with static price resistance and resistance of the PP-Pivot level of the month. Better be prepared for a continuation of the downtrend. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 24, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "As expected price moved up even a bit above the pivot support S1, here resistance, up to the 100 day average and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands(R). With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave. Important: Read the comment given with the weekly chart! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Closing the week a fraction higher. Last week I mentioned: "With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave" But, perhaps I overlooked the other possibility meaning, the index is not making a first ABC correction but, a 5-impulse wave down for a longer term wave A correction. If that is the case the index now makes the wave 2 correction. Since a wave 2 correction can retrace up to 100% of wave 1, the index may go further up to the last top. That will be confusing because you will be thinking that the up move is continuing. If the index moves further up now, the chance that we are making a correction wave 2 becomes more lightly. Looking at the Elliott count in the weekly chart, even making a higher top is not impossible. All rather confusing for the moment. A close follow up is needed! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocatat.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 17, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "The first down target around 2700 was broken already on Monday but, price made an up correction on Tuesday to the same level. The lowest low was reached on Friday with 2532.7, finding support on the 200 day average. The start of the move down was announced by a negative divergence, the green arrows, with higher index prices and a lower SRSI top. Now you can note a lower index bottom with also a lower SRSI bottom. This is a convergent move. We should expect some upward correction that already started on Friday up to the 100 average resistance. I assume there will be some more correction possibly, towards the S1 pivot resistance, after which we should expect a further move down. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

As expected price moved up even a bit above the pivot support S1, here resistance, up to the 100 day average and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands(R). With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave. Important: Read the comment given with the weekly chart! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

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Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 10, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "The stochastic RSI made a negative divergence with the index and started a down reaction with a price gap, followed by a large down candle with another gap on Friday. The next down target is around 2700, the 50 day price average, the low side of the volatility band and a price support level. I do expect some pullback when this level is reached. Be prepared for a possible longer term larger correction! Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The first down target around 2700 was broken already on Monday but, price made an up correction on Tuesday to the same level. The lowest low was reached on Friday with 2532.7, finding support on the 200 day average. The start of the move down was announced by a negative divergence, the green arrows, with higher index prices and a lower SRSI top. Now you can note a lower index bottom with also a lower SRSI bottom. This is a convergent move. We should expect some upward correction that already started on Friday up to the 100 average resistance. I assume there will be some more correction possibly, towards the S1 pivot resistance, after which we should expect a further move down. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/