Here’s several reasons:
Here’s several reasons:
Posted by Courtney Smith on November 15, 2018 at 09:04 AM in Courtney Smith, DVDs and Courses, General, Indicators/Oscillators, Options, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Click here to watch for free.
Posted by Courtney Smith on July 31, 2018 at 06:01 AM in Courtney Smith, General, Investing, Options, Risk Management, Sector Trading | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Gold has probably already started a massive rally that can make fortunes for those prepared to take advantage of it.
Several key factors are lining up to create an incredible opportunity.
I am broadcasting a free live webinar on July 31 at 5 pm PT. Click here to register.
I will lay out the deep fundamental reasons why this will be the biggest rally of the year.
I will show you the current technical situation so you will understand the current pressures in the market.
I will give you my personal trading plan and I will hopefully making money in the expected bull run.
This webinar is free and you can claim your seat by clicking here.
There will be a replay but you must register to receive the notice of the replay. So do it now while you are thinking about it.
Posted by Courtney Smith on July 29, 2017 at 06:06 AM in Courtney Smith, General, Sector Trading, Trader Psychology, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Friday’s tech savaging continues today. The NASDAQ has already dropped almost 5% from high to low in just two days.
The size of the move on Friday combined with the heavy volume suggest that this is a major high for the index. We are seeing other sectors, such as consumer staples and utilities rallying sharply as investors move from tech to safe havens.
I liquidated nearly all my tech position by Monday and will wait until I think of investing in this sector soon from a position perspective.
But, as a swing trader, I’ll be buying Facebook (FB) if it closes higher on the day. Right now, as I write this, we are seeing an initial plunge but now FB is rallying sharply. This type of price action usually leads to a pop to the upside that is very traceable and I look to make some money. I’ll be taking profits of about $4 per share at about 151.00.
This swing trading style is the subject of a free video training I just posted. You can watch if free by clicking here.
Or go to CournteySmith.com/tec-tantrum/
Posted by Courtney Smith on June 12, 2017 at 05:57 PM in Candlesticks, Courtney Smith, General, Investing, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis, Trader Psychology | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Our goal here at the Traders’ Library blog is to provide you with informative content that you can use to help improve your trading—your one stop resource for everything trading.
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Posted by Danielle on April 25, 2011 at 08:49 AM in Candlesticks, David Vomund, DVDs and Courses, Elliott Wave, ETFs, Fibonacci, Forex, Indicators/Oscillators, Investing, Options, Risk Management, Sector Trading, Stock Market, Systems Trading, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0)
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"Getting Started in Option Selling" with Carley Garner, PFG, and DeCarley Trading on February 10th. Register free here
January 27th, 2011
Order Carley's book from TradersLibrary.com! http://www.invest-store.com/carleygarner/item.php?6954333
Political protests (more like riots) in Egypt shook up the financial and commodity markets. Investors flocked from risk and into "stuff" (as Dennis Gartman calls it). In other words, investors put money into hard assets, namely gold and silver. In theory, the move should have triggered a large wave of quality buying in Treasuries but that just wasn't the case. However, there was a firm flight to quality bid in the U.S. Dollar and that leaves the door open for fixed income buying early next week should the equity slide continue.
On the news front, advanced 4th quarter readings on GDP were reported at 3.2%. This was far and away better than the previous 2.6% but shy of expectations at 3.7%. Nonetheless, it shows stability in the recovery and is bearish for Treasuries...it seems as though this was the news that took some of the steam out of today's upswing. That said, although the long bond ended the day with only moderate gains the March futures contract experienced a two-handle rally from the session low.
Negating some of the bearishness of the headline GDP was the chain deflator component of the report that portrayed much less inflation than was previously thought.
Keep an eye on the Yen and the US Dollar Index; during times of uncertainty quality bids often find their way into these currencies and investors will want a "low risk" place to park cash. Strength in these two futures could finally lead to an upside breakout in Treasuries.
Friday's trade was highly headline driven and trade in early next week will be dictated by what unfolds, or doesn't unfold into the weekend.
Continue reading "Subdued response to turmoil for Treasury futures" »
Posted by Carley Garner on January 28, 2011 at 03:28 PM in Books, Carley Garner, Commodities, General, Options, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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Come join optionsXpress host Jim Rouzan and special guest Ross L. Beck for a three-part series on the Gartley Trading Method. Part I is an Introduction to the Gartley Pattern and is based on Ross’ new book The Gartley Trading Method: New Techniques to Profit from the Markets Most Powerful Formation. Part II will be presented on February 7th and Part III will be presented on March 7th. This is an event that you will not want to miss! To register for Part 1 of the series, click here.
Posted by Ross Beck on January 6, 2011 at 03:49 PM in Books, Carley Garner, Commodities, Elliott Wave, ETFs, Fibonacci, Forex, Forums, General, Indicators/Oscillators, Investing, Jeff Greenblatt, Oil, Options, Risk Management, Sector Trading, Stock Market, Systems Trading, Technical Analysis, Trader Psychology, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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December 29th, 2010
It seems to happen every year...and in fact, we have been noting the holiday grind higher in this newsletter. However, each year it is nearly unbelievable. Traders typically take off this time of year to bask in their glory or mull over their mistakes; nonetheless, they aren't involved in the markets and that tends to favor a melt-up. Almost as common is the tendency to see modest market declines after the New Year. This comes as investors look to lock in profits and defer their tax liabilities to the 2011 tax year. Another seasonal pattern to keep an eye on is possible weakness in the Euro which kicks into gear in early January. If this tendency emerges, it could promote the idea of weaker stocks in the near-term. According to MRCI's data, the Euro and the S&P 500 futures have a positive correlation of 70%. If this continues to be the case, pressure on the Euro could be the excuse traders are looking for to send the stock indices into corrective mode. Not much has changed since yesterday, here is our overall "take": After all, it is quite possible the market has gotten too long and that leaves the indices ripe for a large correction. Therefore, playing from the bull side of things might be a bit greedy. On the other hand, the bears should take it nice and slow. We like the idea of being bearish on rallies but can't rule out another run up before coming down. For instance, we see resistance near 1160, but the chart suggests a spike high could print in the low 1170's. If you are trading the NASDAQ, similar levels are 2240 and 2255ish. In the Russell, this equates to 795 and 802. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac tomorrow is statistically bullish with increase in the S&P about 70% of the time. Friday, however, is slightly bearish. The end of the official Santa Claus rally is Tuesday the 4th. With this, and other things in mind, it feels as though any correction (if it occurs) will take place in the New Year.
Posted by Carley Garner on December 29, 2010 at 12:30 PM in Carley Garner, Commodities, General, Options, Sector Trading, Stock Market, Video | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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Purchase Option Trade Advantage DVD by Trader's Library and Carley Garner, click here!
As is typically the case, December trading in Treasuries is chock full of excitement (some good and some bad). After a rough week, shorts in the long bond looked to begin exiting positions yesterday into the late afternoon dip but as the pendulum began to swing the other way, the bears began to scramble. One of the day's key events was a sudden decline in the Euro that sent the currency over 200 points from its session high.
The selling was triggered on the conclusion of a European Union meeting in which the details of a previously celebrated agreement in regards to permanent support of the region. Also, a downgrade of Ireland by Moody's triggered a moderate sense of flight to quality. Nonetheless, the stock market has become seemingly immune from European downgrades. Adding to the volatility was a severe lack of liquidity here and across the pond. B
onds and notes were dramatically oversold, and as we have been pointing out in this newsletter...small speculators had accumulated large short positions while large specs (managed money...smart money?) were long bonds. Additionally, Friday's tend to often see counter-trend trade and this Friday in particular is ahead of what will likely be a low volume holiday trading week. All of these things were pointing toward a large short-covering rally but even the bullish of the bulls (us) were beginning to second guess the market. Naturally, one trading day doesn't make a trend and the Treasury bulls aren't out of the woods yet...but there are a lot less trees!
As short as the market had gotten leads us to believe that (aside from some Monday morning back and fill trade) the squeeze has room to run. In the March 30-year bond we are looking for prices to see the 123's in the coming sessions and if you are trading the 10-year note this translates into just under 122, and in the 5-year note the mid-118's.
Posted by Carley Garner on December 17, 2010 at 02:00 PM in Carley Garner, Commodities, DVDs and Courses, General, Options, Sector Trading | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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Carley will be speaking at the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas, entry is complimentary with expo registration. Click here to sign up!
Can't make it to the Trader's Expo? Sign up for our next complimentary webinar to learn more about credit spreads and iron condors. Click here to register!
October 26th, 2010
Treasury bond and notes suffered on Tuesday at the hands of "OK" economic data and follow through selling left over from yesterday's 5-year TIPS auction. If you recall, the Treasury reopened 5-year note TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) at a negative yield for the first time in history!
TIPS have been in rally mode for some time and the buying has been exaggerated by speculation of the Fed's next round of quantitative easing, known by most as QE2. Although investors have found comfort in the idea of fixed income backed by the credit worthiness of the government, it is clear they are also seeking some protection from inflation via TIPS. In a roundabout way, those holding long Treasury note positions can hedge their bets through the purchase of TIPS. Should inflation rear its ugly head, the TIPS "should" take some of the heat off price pressures felt in more traditional coupon securities.
The Federal Reserve implemented another phase of its POMO (permanent Open Market Operations) today. Specifically, they purchased $2.5 billion worth of maturities ranging from 2011 through 2040. The Fed's current tentative Treasury buyback schedule ends on November 8th but they are expected to announced a new round of purchases at next week's Fed meeting.
Most are looking for the next round of buying to be about $500 billion in size, but some estimates are calling for as much as $2 trillion. Our guess is, the markets have likely priced in a half a trillion but if the Fed opts for the last bazooka, the markets might not be fully prepared.
The correlation between the Yen and Treasuries held true during the session. As we pointed out yesterday, the correlation coefficient between the Yen and the December 30-year bond futures is in the mid-90's. If this correlation stands, it could weigh down the long bond a little more before a reversal can occur.
Continue reading "Negative TIPS hangover in Treasury Futures " »
Posted by Carley Garner on October 26, 2010 at 02:31 PM in Carley Garner, Forums, General, Indicators/Oscillators, Investing, Options, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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Carley will be speaking at the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas, entry is complimentary with expo registration. Click here to sign up!
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October 26th, 2010
If you are an avid reader of the "Stock Trader's Almanac" you are likely aware of the fact that we have officially entered what is known as the "Best Six Months" of the year. You might also know that historical stats suggest the best time to be long stocks within the presidency cycle is the first quarter of the midterm year and the first quarter of the pre-election year. In addition, history suggests the markets have out-performed when there is a Democrat in the White House and a Republican controlled Congress. What does all of this mean? Investors maintaining a buy on dips mentality will likely face better odds of success than one that is fighting the statistics in the coming months. With all this in mind, chasing markets higher can be (more often than not) a recipe for disaster. With the U.S. dollar ripe for a rather large short covering rally, it might be possible for equities to suffer from corrective trade at some point in the near-future. This move has been a long time coming...we haven't given up on it, but warn those that have gotten complacent in the currency markets (and thus commodities) there could be some ruffled feathers when the somewhat inevitable technical trade takes hold. Excerpt from yesterday's newsletter for those of you that missed it:
Continue reading "Investors still buying dips along with POMO" »
Posted by Carley Garner on October 26, 2010 at 02:14 PM in Carley Garner, Forums, General, Indicators/Oscillators, Investing, Options, Risk Management, Sector Trading, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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Carley will be speaking at the Trader's Expo in Las Vegas, entry is complimentary with expo registration. Click here to sign up!
Can't make it to the Trader's Expo? Sign up for our next complimentary webinar to learn more about credit spreads and iron condors. Click here to register!
October 21st, 2010
Investors look to finally be fleeing hard assets such as commodities but the money sure isn't flowing into Treasuries. A mid-day comeback in the Dollar, suggests traders could be looking for a place to park money in "other" U.S. Dollar denominated assets in the coming days; however, stocks could be a little pricy...the next logical place would be bonds and notes. With yields as such paltry levels, it isn't surprising to see hesitation but if historical tendencies has anything to say about it traders will be buying Treasuries in the short-term.
The Fed is scheduled to resume its POMO program tomorrow, and as we have noted this tends to force asset prices higher, the dollar lower and could also help to keep bonds and notes from seeing a deeper correction.
Weighing on fixed income prices were a handful of decent economic numbers. Not only do the better than expected figures ease concerns over the economy but they also act as a deterrent for additional quantitative easing. That said, as we mentioned in the Stock Index Report yesterday...the Fed has "printed" its way into a corner now that the markets have priced in a good portion of the Treasury buybacks and they probably wouldn't want to disturb a sleeping giant.
The Labor Department reported a draw of 23,000 jobless claims to 452,000 and the Conference board's index of leading indicators was up .3%. The Philly Fed regional index posted a positive 1.0, despite a previous reading in the red.
From yesterday's newsletter:
The typical stocks vs. bonds relationship seems to be gone with the wind, so we are forced to try to look at the Treasury market as a free-standing asset class. At this time, it appears as though the path of least resistance will be higher given the slough of negative data, a trend is your friend mentality (for now) and investors still prefer the security of fixed income.
We weren't necessarily expecting today's dip, but feel as though it could eventually turn into an opportunity for the near-term bulls. The long bond looks to be headed to 131ish, and could possibly trade as low as 130 but we like the idea of being cautiously bullish from such pricing. On the upside, we will be looking for resistance near 133'06 but feel as though 135 is a real possibility in the coming weeks.
Support in the 10-year note lies at 126 and again in the mid-125's; if things do turn around we will be looking for 128 on the upside.
Continue reading "Sluggish Treasuries despite "risk off" trade" »
Posted by Carley Garner on October 21, 2010 at 01:01 PM in Carley Garner, Forums, General, Investing, Options, Risk Management, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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September 1, 2010
Just as Treasury traders focused on the bullish fundamental factors in yesterday's session, today was all about the bearish arguments. Unfortunately, the market is having difficulty coming to a reasonable middle ground. A few days ago, we called for consolidation trade in the Treasury markets and I guess in a roundabout way that is what we are seeing. However, this is the most exciting consolidation I have seen in years! The long bond has been quickly moving between 135ish and 132ish.
The markets had picked a direction in overnight trade, but the frenzy was propelled by a better than expected ISM reading. According to the Institute of Supply Management, the August index landed at 56.3 to beat last month's as well as analyst expectations.
Many are arguing the size of today's move on such a minimal economic report but I argue that much of the motivation was a delayed reaction to the Fed minutes released yesterday. As we noted in the last newsletter, the market focused on the Fed's willingness to take further policy action but ignored the fact that they didn't believe it would be necessary or that the most recent QE move was done with some contention.
We are still patiently waiting for the holiday weekend. In theory, market liquidity (and hopefully calmer heads) will return from the three day Labor Day weekend.
We aren't going to pretend we know exactly where the market is going, I doubt that anybody is having too much luck given the market conditions. All we can to is chicken scratch the chart, and give you our best guess....
Obvious support and resistance in the December bond futures will be 135'10 and 131'20, respectively; distant levels will be 136'20 and 127. IF the high 136's are seen, it should be a good place to be a bear. On the flip side, seasonals remain bullish for the next several weeks so it might not be a bad idea to try the long side on a massive sell off into the mid-to-low 128's.
The notes are a better market to be trading futures in. We like the idea of being short-term bulls in the mid-123's and bears in the mid 126's.
Better traders than us might look to play the market in between our noted levels, if so look for a possible swing higher tomorrow ahead of the employment numbers on Friday with the first resistance coming in near 125'09 in the 10 year note and 134'05 in the 30-year bond futures.
Posted by Carley Garner on September 1, 2010 at 03:48 PM in Carley Garner, General, Options, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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August 27th, 2010
Sometimes news that is bad, but not as bad as expected is interpreted and being "good news" and that is exactly what happened with today's GDP report. A few months ago, the markets would have cringed at a growth rate of 1.6% but with expectations for the figure to be 1.4% or much less, it was a breath of fresh air. Also a bit bearish for bonds was a slightly hotter than expected GDP deflator.
As always, Ben Bernanke testimony stole some of the thunder from economic news. However, after all was said and done the market reaction to each event seemed to coincide. The Fed chair pricked the bond bubble by stating that they believe the risks of deflation are not significant at this time and by refraining from announcing further quantitative easing. He also pledged to continue to take action should the economic recovery continue to falter.
The markets took his statements as a sign of stability and acted accordingly. However, one day does not make a trend and Monday could be a little more reliable as an indicator of future market direction. After all, option expiration in Treasuries was today and it is our guess that there were a lot of short call traders that bought future earlier in the week to protect positions were scrambling to sell the same futures in an attempt to avoid the inevitable chop that such a strategy poses.
Reminder from yesterday's newsletter:
The 10-year note has found comfort in the 2.5% range, but we doubt this will hold in the long-term. The only other time yields have been this low (late 2008 on similarly low volume trading), the move quickly proved to be a temporary anomaly. That said, if you recall the last sub-2.5 trade yields reached 2% in dramatic fashion before reversing course. Therefore, what seem to be favorable historical odds...there is a substantial amount of risk involved in speculating the so-called Treasury bubble.
If you missed this trade yesterday:
Clients were advised to purchase October 5-year note 120 calls and sell futures this afternoon for a total risk of under $600 (before considering transaction costs). This gives traders 30 days in the market with unlimited profit potential, capped risk and the ability to quickly adjust or take profits (futures face much tighter spreads than options).
A good exit point in the futures might be just under 119 and depending on how things look, it might be worthwhile to hold on to the long call in hopes of a rebound. Stay tuned...
You should be trading December futures by now...We think the near-term highs are in, but let's face it there is no such thing as easy money. As noted in yesterday's newsletter support in the December 10-year note lies at 124'04ish. This marks the up-trend line as well as other technical areas (Fibonacci and MA analysis). Friday's plunge tested the 124'07 area and puts the market at a significant make or break point. There might be some buyers trying to come in at this level, but failure here could lead to a slide to the mid-122's...at which point we would have to be bullish based on seasonal factors.
In the meantime, the 30-year bond futures look to be much more vulnerable. The first "good" support in bonds doesn't come in until we see 131, but 4 handles off the weekly highs leaves the selling a bit overheated and we could see a Monday morning bounce.
Continue reading " GDP...not so bad say Treasury futures traders " »
Posted by Carley Garner on August 27, 2010 at 04:34 PM in Carley Garner, Forums, General, Options, Sector Trading, Stock Market | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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August 27th, 2010
It has been a long and hard week for stock market optimists. Bad news after bad news has put unrelenting pressure on equities but today's trade might offer enough momentum to fend off a slide in the S&P to the 1,000 area.
Second quarter GDP was revised lower as expected, but the news wasn't as bad as most had anticipated and more importantly what the markets had priced in. As of now, it is believed that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 1.4% last quarter as opposed to what many believed would be much worse. Also helping the bulls were comments by the Fed chair ensuring that the Fed would be ready to step in and defend against a weaker economy if necessary.
As we have been noting in this newsletter, the market feels too bearish. Retail investors have pulled their money out of stock funds in droves and there seems to be very little interest in putting it back to work anytime soon. In fact, according to the American Association of Individual Investors, the number if individual investors that have a bullish outlook on the stock market in the next six months has plunged to 21%. This is the lowest reading since March of 2009 and we all know what happened then. I hate to say it, but once all of the weak hands are out, it is often the time to begin looking for a rally.
In yesterday's newsletter, we were calling for a bounce to the 1065 area, and today we got what we were looking for but it will take some follow through buying early next week to confirm a near-term bottom. I hope some of you were able to capitalize on our advice of trying to get long the S&P on a dip to the mid-to-low 1030's; the low prints weren't see and the 1037 print was quick...
Going into Monday, it seems as though we could get a bit of digestion from the rally. Aside from seeing a 25 plus point run in the S&P from Friday's low, historical statistics suggest that the next to last trading day of August tends to see a struggling market. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac the S&P has closed positive only twice in the last 13 years.
We see resistance in the September S&P futures near 1065 and then again just under 1070. In the meantime, support lies at 1050 and 1034.
If you are trading the NASDAQ or the Russell, we have revised our upside targets to 1835 and 624. If the markets take another big dip down, look for support near 1756 and 596. We still lean toward buying weakness.
Continue reading "Stock index futures bulls might have pulled it off" »
Posted by Carley Garner on August 27, 2010 at 04:22 PM in Carley Garner, General, Indicators/Oscillators, Investing, Options, Sector Trading, Stock Market, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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August 9th, 2010
Light volume tends to produce market "melt-ups" and that looks to be exactly what we are getting. With school starting next week in most districts, traders are trying to squeeze in one last summer vacation and that will likely drop the daily volume to the lowest levels thus far in 2010.
There weren't any government economic reports on the docket, so traders (those that showed up for work anyway) were more focused on preparing for tomorrow's FOMC meeting. The Fed is still expected to keep rates at nearly zero, but there seems to be an uptick in speculation over when the policy might be adjusted and this could create a bit of chaos surrounding the release of the interest rate decision commentary.
As we noted on Friday, the correction that many were looking for seems to have come and gone in a single trading day. The technical set up now suggests that the S&P could rally up to 1140ish before finding some resistance. For tomorrow only, it might be a viable strategy to look to fade any FOMC rally to such levels.
Continue reading "Fed poses risk, but stock index bulls seem to have market by the horns" »
Posted by Carley Garner on August 9, 2010 at 12:47 PM in Carley Garner, DVDs and Courses, ETFs, General, Sector Trading, Stock Market | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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August 9th, 2010
Want to know more about option spread strategies? Carley Garner and Traders' Library have recently teamed up, Click here to purchase the Option Spread Advantage DVD from Traders' Library!
Investors seem to be willing to look back into risky assets for better returns in recent days and weeks. After all, the U.S. dollar has given back much of its "safe haven" gains, commodities have come back into favor and the stock market has managed a way to find stability.
Accordingly, there has been a clear shift in investor sentiment and at some point this will begin to lure money out of pathetically low yielding assets such as Treasuries and even bank issued CD's.
In addition, don't forget about the factors we mentioned late last week. Consistently higher commodity prices will begin to put pricing pressure on the economy; in turn, inflation concerns would work against the Treasury bulls. Also, a weak dollar has historically been a drag on bond and note prices; although the market seems to be ignoring the dollar plummet now this could change.
We have been looking for the long bond to trade 130, and possibly as high as 131. It now looks like the market could fall short of our 131 projection. This figure was based on the premise of a stock market correction but it now looks like equities corrected and recovered in the blink of an eye. We like being bearish bond and notes just above 130 and near 125 respectively.
Tomorrow's Fed meeting is the wild card, if you choose to play the markets you should also choose to tread lightly. Volume is incredibly light and this exaggerates the event risk surrounding the interest rate decision. Look for potential bearish opportunities on a Fed meeting rally.
Continue reading "Low yields, Treasuries might be losing luster " »
Posted by Carley Garner on August 9, 2010 at 12:38 PM in Carley Garner, DVDs and Courses, General, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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What: Free Exclusive Webinar
When: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 | 8:30 PM EST
Where: Click here to register!
John Person will be having his monthly market outlook - some of you already know how John’s Techniques have helped many traders identify large market moves and profit handsomely! This time will be no different John promises not to pull any punches. John will:
· Cover some of the market sectors that best perform in different economic phases.
· Cover stocks and commodities picks that perform best during specific times of the year from a seasonal perspective.
· Show you how to use ONE of his powerful price indicators available to determine whether you should be BUYING dips or SELLING rallies.
· AND as if all of these factors weren’t enough, John will introduce you to another factor and force of trading – Norman Hallett of The DISCIPLINE OF TRADING.
As part of John’s efforts to complete a session with SOLID information and training, John has asked Norman to participate on giving our subscribers some of his powerful views on this subject to help our clients put better emphasis on the way they trade.
Well… when you have a Master on Trading and a Master of Mental training the forces are with YOU!
Posted by Danielle on July 29, 2010 at 09:00 AM in Commodities, Indicators/Oscillators, Sector Trading, Stock Market, Systems Trading, Technical Analysis, Trader Psychology, Webinars | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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July 21st, 2010
The markets have been nice and choppy. For most this means there has been more money lost than made.
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spooked the market by verbally expressing his concern over an uncertain outlook. Investors immediately hit the sell button and with massive sell stop orders working below, the indices had little chance of avoiding the slide. Also, rumors circulating the CME floor suggest that once of the catalysts to the move was a standing 600 lot stop order in the large S&P futures pit that, once elected, triggered an impressive down-draft.
Specifically, Bernanke stated that the U.S. economy faces "unusually uncertain" prospects but mentioned that the Fed hadn't used all of its resources and would be ready to take further steps to bolster growth if needed. Overall the testimony was less than optimistic but it was also less than surprising. There weren't any startlingly new revelations.
From a technical standpoint, the market is highly mixed. We have been noting 1066ish as the pivot in the S&P (ie. the make or break area) but it has also been acting as a magnet and this makes it tough to pick a direction. In yesterday's newsletter we mentioned that we couldn't be bullish 30 handles from the day's lows and that playing the other side would be a better play, but we didn't expect the fall-out that occurred. Going into tomorrow, we are uncertain of the intermediate -term direction but seasonal tendencies suggest that the markets could go lower before moving higher and the S&P failed at its down-trend line. That said, the session closed near the lows and this usually paves the way for back and fill trade overnight. In other words, if you want to be a bear...don't chase the market lower; selling on rallies might be the play but a "normal" bounce could see prices as high as 1075ish in the S&P.
Posted by Carley Garner on July 21, 2010 at 02:01 PM in Carley Garner, ETFs, General, Options, Sector Trading, Stock Market, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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July 21st, 2010
Most of the day's buying came on the heels of testimony by Bernanke that suggests a largely uncertain economic outlook and low inflation (a bit short of deflation) and given the proposed budget cuts supply concerns have been put on the back burner. Even if large auctions continued Bernanke reassured the markets that foreign demand for Treasuries remains strong.
All in all, Bernake's statements weren't necessarily shocking nor were they new. Nonetheless, the day's events were overall bullish for bonds and notes. Therefore we feel as though we could finally reach our upside target in the September bond futures of the mid 129's to 130ish and just over 124 in the 10-year note. Like we said yesterday: "Nobody has a crystal ball, but the environment is ripe for a bull trap. It seems somewhat likely that Treasuries could see some sort of spike high as buy stops are elected but we doubt that any large gains would be sustainable."
If you have been patiently waiting to play this market from the downside, the mentioned areas should be a good place to start.
Posted by Carley Garner on July 21, 2010 at 01:59 PM in Carley Garner, General, Options, Sector Trading, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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