Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 30, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450." The past week the index moved down to the PP level of the month and price support. This support only lasted a couple of days and was broken with a gap, now reaching exactly the 200 days average. A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this possible correction. The down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I predicted a pullback writing: "A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected." I assume that this consolidation phase and pullback is not yet finished. I expect a correction up to previous price support once more becoming price resistance. This is the level around 2700. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this correction phase. The first down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

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Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 24, 2018.

Last week I wrote: "A week ago the index reached the upper side of the volatility band with a new higher top. The past week there was a correction bringing the index down to the 50-day average. There is a negative divergence between the higher top in price and lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I mentioned: "I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450." The past week the index moved down to the PP level of the month and price support. This support only lasted a couple of days and was broken with a gap, now reaching exactly the 200 days average. A lower bottom both in price and the SRSI confirms a possible pullback the coming week. Also, the possible higher bottom with the low of wave A and lower bottom in the SRSI is a hidden divergence also confirming that a pullback should be expected. However since we do not have a wave C already we must expect a further down move after this possible correction. The down target is around 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

My Take On What Is Happening In the Market Today

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The Most Important Step In Your Trading

 

The most important step is the first step!

 

I’ve taught thousands and thousands of people how to make money trading. Yet a big percentage never actually trade. They take the time and spend the money to come to my class and then never do anything.

 

This drives me nuts. I know that they will make money if they follow the Rules I teach. But they don’t.

 

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Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 17, 2018.

STwo weeks ago I wrote: "As expected last week the index finished the wave B up correction on Tuesday and started the move down for Correction wave C. As I already mentioned with the weekly chart, the B retrace is rather large which possibly means the the correction is not a B-wave but, rather an impulse wave 2 correction. For now I just leave the current annotation because, both expect a further move down. The first target is 2450. If it is a wave 3 that is coming, the first target will be lower to around 2380. Note the negative divergence (1) higher tops in price and lower tops in the SRSI indicator that announced the first move down from top [5]. Next there is a convergent move (2) that made us expect a correction wave B up. And now another convergent move with lower tops or a hidden divergent move that informs us to expect a continuation of the previous down move. There is resistance for an up move with static price resistance and resistance of the PP-Pivot level of the month. Better be prepared for a continuation of the downtrend. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

A week ago the index reached the upper side of the volatility band with a new higher top. The past week there was a correction bringing the index down to the 50-day average. There is a negative divergence between the higher top in price and lower top in the Stochastic RSI indicator. I guess the B-wave is completed and the index will continue to move down. First target is around 2700 where there is price support, support from the PP pivot level of the month and support from the 100-day average and the low side of the volatility band. The medium term target for the completion of the C-wave is at 2450. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

 

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: March 3, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "Closing the week a fraction higher. Last week I mentioned: "With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave" But, perhaps I overlooked the other possibility meaning, the index is not making a first ABC correction but, a 5-impulse wave down for a longer term wave A correction. If that is the case the index now makes the wave 2 correction. Since a wave 2 correction can retrace up to 100% of wave 1, the index may go further up to the last top. That will be confusing because you will be thinking that the up move is continuing. If the index moves further up now, the chance that we are making a correction wave 2 becomes more lightly. Looking at the Elliott count in the weekly chart, even making a higher top is not impossible. All rather confusing for the moment. A close follow up is needed! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

As expected last week the index finished the wave B up correction on Tuesday and started the move down for Correction wave C. As I already mentioned with the weekly chart, the B retrace is rather large which possibly means the the correction is not a B-wave but, rather an impulse wave 2 correction. For now I just leave the current annotation because, both expect a further move down. The first target is 2450. If it is a wave 3 that is coming, the first target will be lower to around 2380. Note the negative divergence (1) higher tops in price and lower tops in the SRSI indicator that announced the first move down from top [5]. Next there is a convergent move (2) that made us expect a correction wave B up. And now another convergent move with lower tops or a hidden divergent move that informs us to expect a continuation of the previous down move. There is resistance for an up move with static price resistance and resistance of the PP-Pivot level of the month. Better be prepared for a continuation of the downtrend. Read my updated comments here for the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/