Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 24, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "As expected price moved up even a bit above the pivot support S1, here resistance, up to the 100 day average and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands(R). With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave. Important: Read the comment given with the weekly chart! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Closing the week a fraction higher. Last week I mentioned: "With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave" But, perhaps I overlooked the other possibility meaning, the index is not making a first ABC correction but, a 5-impulse wave down for a longer term wave A correction. If that is the case the index now makes the wave 2 correction. Since a wave 2 correction can retrace up to 100% of wave 1, the index may go further up to the last top. That will be confusing because you will be thinking that the up move is continuing. If the index moves further up now, the chance that we are making a correction wave 2 becomes more lightly. Looking at the Elliott count in the weekly chart, even making a higher top is not impossible. All rather confusing for the moment. A close follow up is needed! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocatat.org/

The Breeze Is Warm And Beautiful

It's Tuesday. I'm sitting outside at a Starbucks in Bonofacio Global City, BGC. I'm doing my trading here using their wi-fi.

I'm comfy in my chair tucked back from the street. It's lunch time and people are hustling by me. They are purposeful. Sometimes they look a little tense.

But I made some money as I watched them go by.

There is a beautiful warm breeze across my bare arms. Do these people see how wonderful it is?

Last weekend, I was on the island of Lapu Lapu where Magellan was killed. I went to the Shangri-La resort there. I bought a day pass so I could get access to the beach. It was quite expensive but included an incredible buffet lunch. I weight many more pounds than when I arrived. The breeze was warm there too.

I'll stay here for another week or two, then go to my adopted town of Singapore. After that, I might run to Hong Kong for a couple of days for business.

I expect the breeze will be warm and beautiful there too.

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 17, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "The first down target around 2700 was broken already on Monday but, price made an up correction on Tuesday to the same level. The lowest low was reached on Friday with 2532.7, finding support on the 200 day average. The start of the move down was announced by a negative divergence, the green arrows, with higher index prices and a lower SRSI top. Now you can note a lower index bottom with also a lower SRSI bottom. This is a convergent move. We should expect some upward correction that already started on Friday up to the 100 average resistance. I assume there will be some more correction possibly, towards the S1 pivot resistance, after which we should expect a further move down. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

As expected price moved up even a bit above the pivot support S1, here resistance, up to the 100 day average and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands(R). With lower lows both in the index and the SRSI indicator we have a convergent move. Basically this means that price is making a correction. If this is the case we are probably finishing a B-wave and now expecting the C-Wave down. A and C waves are generally about the same size. If this will be the case here, the index can go down to 2400 to finish the C-wave. Important: Read the comment given with the weekly chart! Read my comments here on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

The Truth About Bitcoin

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I started this company 10 years ago. Over those 10 years I have taught over 10,000 students!

 

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Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 10, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "The stochastic RSI made a negative divergence with the index and started a down reaction with a price gap, followed by a large down candle with another gap on Friday. The next down target is around 2700, the 50 day price average, the low side of the volatility band and a price support level. I do expect some pullback when this level is reached. Be prepared for a possible longer term larger correction! Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The first down target around 2700 was broken already on Monday but, price made an up correction on Tuesday to the same level. The lowest low was reached on Friday with 2532.7, finding support on the 200 day average. The start of the move down was announced by a negative divergence, the green arrows, with higher index prices and a lower SRSI top. Now you can note a lower index bottom with also a lower SRSI bottom. This is a convergent move. We should expect some upward correction that already started on Friday up to the 100 average resistance. I assume there will be some more correction possibly, towards the S1 pivot resistance, after which we should expect a further move down. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Is This The Crash Of 2018? Urgent Message!

The Dow dropped 666 points. It this the beginning of the Crash of 2018?

No!

Here are two important reasons why not.

There has never been a crash in a bull market ever. In history.

Let me repeat: there has never been a crash in a bull market in history.

Crashes occur at the END of bear markets! Crashes are the final capitulation of the bulls when they finally give up and sell.

The second critical reason is that ll crashes have been preceded by a flat or negative yield curve ONE YEAR IN ADVANCE!

We recently saw the difference between short and long term interest rates get down to about 100 basis points but that is not enough. In addition, that just occurred so that would mean that there would be a crash in one year, not now.

In other words, there are no preconditions that would lead to a crash right now.

Nonetheless, I have created a precise road map about what is going to happen in the next 30 days. I also will be updating that roadmap every week.

Most importantly, I have specific actionable trade recommendations that I think will make massive profits in this sharp downtrend.

I am putting this all in my weekly video newsletter, TradeSmith. Click here to learn more.

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The Dow dropped 666 points. It this the beginning of the Crash of 2018?

No!

Here are two important reasons why not.

There has never been a crash in a bull market ever. In history.

Let me repeat: there has never been a crash in a bull market in history.

Crashes occur at the END of bear markets! Crashes are the final capitulation of the bulls when they finally give up and sell.

The second critical reason is that ll crashes have been preceded by a flat or negative yield curve ONE YEAR IN ADVANCE!

We recently saw the difference between short and long term interest rates get down to about 100 basis points but that is not enough. In addition, that just occurred so that would mean that there would be a crash in one year, not now.

In other words, there are no preconditions that would lead to a crash right now.

Nonetheless, I have created a precise road map about what is going to happen in the next 30 days. I also will be updating that roadmap every week.

Most importantly, I have specific actionable trade recommendations that I think will make massive profits in this sharp downtrend.

I am putting this all in my weekly video newsletter, TradeSmith. Click here to learn more.

I wrote the #1 stock newsletter for five years but then shut it down. I’m back with a new killer newsletter designed to create massive profits in the stock and options market.

You can’t afford to NOT subscribe!

Click here to learn more about this exciting opportunity! 

Please go to http://courtneysmith.com/is-this-the-crash-of-2018-urgent-message/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 3, 2018.

A week ago I wrote: "The index broke the 423.6% Fibonacci target from 2 weeks ago. Now even the R3 Pivot level of the current Month is broken. However, price is far away from the lower side of the volatility channel and from all averages. The Stochastic RSI may be making a negative divergence with the index. Normally this means that a pullback is not far away. As mentioned with the weekly chart I expect a reaction around the 3000 level. On the other hand I expect a continuation of the move after a correction. The longer term Fibonacci target is around 3200. Maybe you should try a long trade after the expected reaction for a ride to 3200. Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

The stochastic RSI made a negative divergence with the index and started a down reaction with a price gap, followed by a large down candle with another gap on Friday. The next down target is around 2700, the 50 day price average, the low side of the volatility band and a price support level. I do expect some pullback when this level is reached. Be prepared for a possible longer term larger correction! Read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/