Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 27, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving average." Tuesday the market closed a fraction higher, creating a new top. However, Wednesday the gap was closed and the index even went down a bit further closing one more gap in this daily chart reaching the low side of the volatility channel. From that point there was a pullback to the upper side. The larger move down on Wednesday created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed before the downward move continues down to the first target around 2325. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I mentioned: "The larger move down on Wednesday created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed before the downward move continues down to the first target around 2325." Not only this gap was closed the past week furthermore, the index made a new long term high, reaching the R1 pivot resistance of the Month. I now expect price to rise still a bit higher but on the other hand, I still am convinced we are close to a correction. It looks like the index builds a negative divergence with higher tops in price and lower tops in the Stochastic RSI indicator. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 20, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "Le pen did not make it as the new President of France. I mentioned last week: "Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace." It looks like we started this expected move the past week. The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving average. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I mentioned: "The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving average." Tuesday the market closed a fraction higher, creating a new top. However, Wednesday the gap was closed and the index even went down a bit further closing one more gap in this daily chart reaching the low side of the volatility channel. From that point there was a pullback to the upper side. The larger move down on Wednesday created another gap in the daily chart. Possibly this one will be closed before the downward move continues down to the first target around 2325. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 13, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: " The up move the past week was clearly a reaction to the result of the first round French Presidential elections. I advice to close or cover long positions because, Marine Le pen winning unexpectedly the election next week Sunday, may send a big shock through the markets! Worse than the Brexit!" Now almost everybody is convinced that Le Pen cannot win the French presidential elections tomorrow. It looks like the big black cloud over the markets is gone. Nevertheless I hope you are out of the market for the moment because, the shock will be even more devastating if the unexpected happens. Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace. Who knows, the direction of the normal technical move expected may be a sign what to expect May 8! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Le pen did not make it as the new President of France. I mentioned last week: "Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace." It looks like we started this expected move the past week. The target for the coming week is closing the gap around 2380, possibly down to the PP pivot of the current month and the 50-day simple moving average. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

My Worst Trade.

I was really bullish on the US dollar. I had done all my usually homework. Deep fundamental analysis. Sophisticated technical analysis. I had a plan that was dynamite! How could it go wrong?

Famous last words.

I was sitting and staring at the screen waiting for a big news item. Tick tick tick. I stare at the screen waiting for the news to come out so I can count my big big winnings.

Finally! The news flashes across the ticker!

OMG!

It is strongly different from what I expected!

The gaps hundreds of pips in the wrong direction! It leaps over my stop loss so my very tight risk management is blown out of the water.

I call the broker to see if I am out of my position and where I was filled. The price is staggering. The gap is huge. The price I receive seems miles away from the price where I put my stop loss.

My eyes bug out and my stomach drops. I feel sick. I’m having a hard time calculate my loss. My eyes are blurring. My mind is blurring.

Finally, I stop trying to calculate my loss in my head and reach for a calculator. I punch the numbers. I can’t believe how much I’ve lost.

I do it again. Very slowly. The number doesn’t change.

I’ve lost $400,000 in a second.

I make sure that I’m out of my positions. I get up and walk outside.

I walk for several miles to a movie theater and watch a dumb action movie to get my mind off the disaster. But it doesn’t work.

The movie ends and I drudge back to my desk. I shake myself and tell myself that I have to get my act together and get back to what I know how to do, make money trading.

I was devastated but knew that I couldn’t let the devastation affect my trading. I went back to basics. To what I knew works.

I put my head down and focused on trading. The devastation occurred at the beginning of the month and I was back to break even by the end of the month!

My experience may be extreme for most traders because of the amount of the loss. But the emotional reaction is super common. Everybody feels terrible when they lose money trading.

I’ve put together a new course, my best course, called the Psychology of Massive Wealth. I’ll be sharing with you my personal value, ideas, and actions to conquer trading and even your whole life.

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Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 6, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "After the first round French presidential elections it looks like most people believe Marine Le Pen will not win the second round to become the new French president. But remember few believed that the English would vote for a Brexit. The up move the past week was clearly a reaction to the result of the first round French Presidential elections. I advice to close or cover long positions because, Marine Le pen winning unexpectedly the election next week Sunday, may send a big shock through the markets! Worse than the Brexit! Business will not be as usual until after this election. It looks like it has not much sense to try to predict how the markets will look May 8, 2017 this moment in time. Pure technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace. Who knows, the direction of the normal technical move expected may be a sign what to expect May 8! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view."

Last week I mentioned: "The up move the past week was clearly a reaction to the result of the first round French Presidential elections. I advice to close or cover long positions because, Marine Le pen winning unexpectedly the election next week Sunday, may send a big shock through the markets! Worse than the Brexit!" Now almost everybody is convinced that Le Pen cannot win the French presidential elections tomorrow. It looks like the big black cloud over the markets is gone. Nevertheless I hope you are out of the market for the moment because, the shock will be even more devastating if the unexpected happens. Technically I would expect that gaps will be filled with a downward move the coming week(s). The new downward target is now at 2317, close to the last bottom, the low side of the volatility band and the 50% retrace. Who knows, the direction of the normal technical move expected may be a sign what to expect May 8! Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/