Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 25, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "A bit as expected, closing the week higher, reaching the last current Fibonacci target and the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. As I mentioned last week, we lost the negative divergence and we now have a convergent move between the SRSI indicator and the index. Basically this means we should now expect a short term reaction for the last wave up and not yet a longer term reaction. I estimate that a reaction of some 60 points can be expected, maybe after a further small move up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more comments and the longer term view."

As expected, more or less some 15 points up move the past week. A longer term Fibonacci projection now reaches exactly the 261.8% target. With the convergent move between the index and the stochastic RSI, we must expect in the first place a (smaller) correction related to the last wave up. This reaction will be in the order of 60 index points. The index is now at the upper side of the pitchfork channel and the stochastic RSI is topping. The index is also far away from the averages. Possibly the reaction starts the coming week. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more comments and the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 18, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "Closing the week some one percent higher. If the index turns down now, we have another negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the Stochastic RSI indicator with lower tops. On the other hand there seems to be room for at least another 20 points up move. If that happens the negative divergence will disappear. I see different Fibonacci targets, some point to the current level and some go about 20 points higher. It looks like we have to follow up, waiting for a long term reversal. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more comments and the longer term view."

A bit as expected, closing the week higher, reaching the last current Fibonacci target and the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. As I mentioned last week, we lost the negative divergence and we now have a convergent move between the SRSI indicator and the index. Basically this means we should now expect a short term reaction for the last wave up and not yet a longer term reaction. I estimate that a reaction of some 60 points can be expected, maybe after a further small move up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more comments and the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 11, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "There was a gap down on Monday and a gap up on Friday. The result, the week is closing just a fraction higher. Price is at the top of the BBS band and reaches a Fibonacci target. Additionally we should expect resistance from the R1 pivot of the month. What to expect next week? Looking at the monthly and weekly chart I would say probably the start of the move down however, on this daily chart this is not very clear. We have to follow up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for a longer term view."

Closing the week some one percent higher. If the index turns down now, we have another negative divergence between the index with higher tops and the Stochastic RSI indicator with lower tops. On the other hand there seems to be room for at least another 20 points up move. If that happens the negative divergence will disappear. I see different Fibonacci targets, some point to the current level and some go about 20 points higher. It looks like we have to follow up, waiting for a long term reversal. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more comments and the longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: February 4, 2017.

Last week I wrote: "Wednesday there was a gap up breaking the resistance of the R1 pivot level of the month, creating another higher high. I keep believing we are at a long term top. Price is near the top of the volatility channel. The last tops and bottoms are a convergent move between the index and the indicators. This is mostly the case when you are looking at a correction move, which is not the case here, or is it perhaps that exaggerated? I expect a closure of the gap the coming week. Price is far away from all the averages. You should read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for the longer term view."

There was a gap down on Monday and a gap up on Friday. The result, the week is closing just a fraction higher. Price is at the top of the BBS band and reaches a Fibonacci target. Additionally we should expect resistance from the R1 pivot of the month. What to expect next week? Looking at the monthly and weekly chart I would say probably the start of the move down however, on this daily chart this is not very clear. We have to follow up. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for a longer term view.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/