Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 31, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "The past week was a consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached at 261.8%. There were only small moves and the index is closing the week just a fraction higher. There are a number of technical reasons why we should expect a retracement. The stochastic RSI is topping and turning down. The is a small negative divergence between the higher top in price and a smaller top in the stochastic RSI. Price is bouncing against the upper side of the volatility channel. Price is far away from the averages. Technical price downward targets are at 2120, 2040 and 1950."

It looks like I can repeat my last week comments this week: "The past week was a consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached at 261.8%. There were only small moves and the index is closing the week just a fraction higher. There are a number of technical reasons why we should expect a retracement. The stochastic RSI is topping and turning down. The is a small negative divergence between the higher top in price and a smaller top in the stochastic RSI. Price is bouncing against the upper side of the volatility channel. Price is far away from the averages. Technical price downward targets are at 2120, 2040 and 1950." Please read my longer term comments here:  weekly chart and monthly chart.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 23, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen." Yes, we have a new long term top. The top is exactly at a historical 261.8% Fibonacci price projection (2167) from the bottom of 02/11/2016. For me this is the small long term expected higher top. We should now expect a long term reaction down. The stochastic RSI is topping with a (very small) negative divergence. The first target will be 2120 followed by the 50, 100 and 200 simple moving average (around 2000)."

The past week was a consolidation of the Fibonacci target reached at 261.8%. There were only small moves and the index is closing the week just a fraction higher. There are a number of technical reasons why we should expect a retracement. The stochastic RSI is topping and turning down. The is a small negative divergence between the higher top in price and a smaller top in the stochastic RSI. Price is bouncing against the upper side of the volatility channel. Price is far away from the averages. Technical price downward targets are at 2120, 2040 and 1950.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 16, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen. But as I mentioned already before, if this happens, my opinion it will be only a small new top. The target would be 2170. The long term consolidation will start a new downward move. The index reached the upper side of a slow moving upward pitchfork. I consider the force to start a new move down to have a better chance, be it after a new small long term top. First targets are the 50 and 100 simple moving averages and the median line of the up moving pitchfork."

Last week I wrote: "It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen." Yes, we have a new long term top. The top is at exactly at a historical 261.8% Fibonacci price projection (2167) from the bottom of 02/11/2016. For me this is the small long term expected higher top. We should now expect a long term reaction down. The stochastic RSI is topping with a (very small) negative divergence. The first target will be 2120 followed by the 50, 100 and 200 simple moving average (around 2000).

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 9, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "The index reached the expected next first down target at 2000 on Monday, reaching the low side of the down moving pitchfork and breaking below the 200 day simple moving average. The rest of the week recovered the move down back up to the upper side of the down moving pitchfork. Longer term we are still in a down move. We should not exclude the possibility of a further move up, but I believe if this happens it will be limited. Medium and longer term I expect a continuation of the move down. I believe the larger up retracement is a kind of overreaction to the two days large move down."

It looks like the market is still pushing to go for a new long term high. The index is now that close that probably this will happen. But as I mentioned already before, if this happens, my opinion it will be only a small new top. The target would be 2170. The long term consolidation will start a new downward move. The index reached the upper side of a slow moving upward pitchfork. I consider the force to start a new move down to have a better chance, be it after a new small long term top. First targets are the 50 and 100 simple moving averages and the median line of the up moving pitchfork.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: July 2, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "Apparently the Brexit did not produce any additional effect to the S&P500 than what I already expected last week; a move further down towards 2030 as I mentioned a week ago. But, as you can see in the chart a big move down in a single day on Friday, reaching price support and the 100 day simple moving average. Probably there will be some pullback now, but medium term I expect a further move down. Next down targets are at 2000, 1960 and 1920. Longer term the target is 1625."

The index reached the expected next first down target at 2000 on Monday, reaching the low side of the down moving pitchfork and breaking below the 200 day simple moving average. The rest of the week recovered the move down back up to the upper side of the down moving pitchfork. Longer term we are still in a down move. We should not exclude the possibility of a further move up, but I believe if this happens it will be limited. Medium and longer term I expect a continuation of the move down. I believe the larger up retracement is a kind of overreaction to the two days large move down.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/