Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 25, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "The bearish harami cross confirmed candle pattern was continued on Monday with another large black candle down. The low of the week went down to 2050 finding support on the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the S1 pivot support of the month. I think the next down target is the low side of the volatility band and the 200 day average around 2030. I wonder what a possible BREXIT of the UK may do to the markets the coming week?"

Apparently the Brexit did not produce any additional effect to the S&P500 than what I already expected last week; a move further down towards 2030 as I mentioned a week ago. But, as you can see in the chart a big move down in a single day on Friday, reaching price support and the 100 day simple moving average. Probably there will be some pullback now, but medium term I expect a further move down. Next down targets are at 2000, 1960 and 1920. Longer term the target is 1625.

Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 18, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "We had to wait until Friday to get the expected turn down. At the new E2 extended top correction, reaching the R1 pivot resistance of the month, we see a bearish harami cross followed Friday by a larger correction down. I have already drawn a new downward pitchfork. Next down targets are the PP pivot level around 2075 and 2015 a Fibonacci target if we have started to continue the longer term down move. The index will probably move down to the median line of the downward pitchfork, the low side of the volatility band and the 100 daily average for the coming week(s)."

The bearish harami cross confirmed candle pattern was continued on Monday with another large black candle down. The low of the week went down to 2050 finding support on the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the S1 pivot support of the month. I think the next down target is the low side of the volatility band and the 200 day average around 2030. I wonder what a possible BREXIT of the UK may do to the markets the coming week?

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 11, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "Since we are closing the week at the same level as the week before, nothing has changed. But we have now a hanging man and bearish harami candle stick top reversal pattern. This may be the announcement of a reversal for the coming week. The index is very close to the price resistance of the previous top wave E2, the upper side of the shorter term flat pitchfork while the stochastic RSI is topping and already making a small turn down. It looks like we rather should expect a continuation of the medium turn down move the coming week(s)."

We had to wait until Friday to get the expected turn down. At the new E2 extended top correction, reaching the R1 pivot resistance of the month, we see a bearish harami cross followed Friday by a larger correction down. I have already drawn a new downward pitchfork. Next down targets are the PP pivot level around 2075 and 2015 a Fibonacci target if we have started to continue the longer term down move. The index will probably move down to the median line of the downward pitchfork, the low side of the volatility band and the 100 daily average for the coming week(s).

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 4, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "I thought there would only be a small further up pullback, but there was a larger one last week moving up close to the R1 pivot of the month of May, the previous top of correction wave E2, and the upper side of a longer term and short term pitchfork. We should not exclude a further move up to the upper side of the volatility band, making a small higher top above the previous E2 correction wave. But I believe the long term correction wave down is not finished. The next couple of weeks will have to show what is coming next."

Since we are closing the week at the same level as the week before, nothing has changed. But we have now a hanging man and bearish harami candle stick top reversal pattern. This may be the announcement of a reversal for the coming week. The index is very close to the price resistance of the previous top wave E2, the upper side of the shorter term flat pitchfork while the stochastic RSI is topping and already making a small turn down. It looks like we rather should expect a continuation of the medium turn down move the coming week(s).

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/