Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: January 30, 2016.

A week ago I wrote: "Unfortunately I could not write a comment last week. I had a heart attack and was in hospital. A lot better for the moment, but fast feeling tired, it will take a bit more time to recover. My comment a couple of weeks ago was correct expecting a first low around 1830 for the construction of wave 3.2 down. Starting a recovery past that point. It looks like there is more room for a further up retracement. Probably to the level of the S2 pivot resistance and a bit further up to the S1 pivot level, the 100 daily average and price resistance around 2000. But there is a convergent move between the index and the stochastic indicator. This means that most probably we are now getting a correction for the last wave down, but a continuation of the down move once this correction finishes. The next longer term down target is 1740 and 1600."

As I mentioned last week: "It looks like there is more room for a further up retracement. Probably to the level of the S2 pivot resistance." This was also the level of a 50% retracement of the wave 3.2 down and the resistance of a previous gap in the index. And yes this was the point reached the past week. There is little room for a small further up move, but we should expect the coming week(s) a continuation of the move down for a wave 3.3 down. First target is 1740. The index and Stochastic RSI are building a hidden divergence with lower tops in the index and higher tops in the indicator. Generally this means we must expect a continuation of the move down once the correction wave 2 is completed.

Monthly and weekly comments Stocata.Org.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: January 23, 2016.

Two weeks ago I wrote: "I looks like my prediction from already 3 weeks ago was very good. There was a pullback creating an extended wave 2, but the last week of 2015 the top of the pullback was reached and a continuation of the downtrend started. What was my expected target 3 weeks ago? Between 1930 and 1920. We are closing the first week of 2016 at, yes, 1922. On the daily chart we have now a valid 3.2 wave down. There is room for a further move down. Target is the low side of the down moving pitchfork, the S3 pivot support and the level of 1830. At that point we must expect some retracement. Longer term targets are 1730 and 1600 which I consider the minimum correction we should expect long term. Verify at the traderslibrary blog what I wrote on December 12, 2015: "Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975 and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be some up retracement the coming couple of weeks before moving to lower levels."

Unfortunately I could not write a comment last week. I had a heart attack and was in hospital. A lot better for the moment, but fast feeling tired, it will take a bit more time to recover. My comment a couple of weeks ago was correct expecting a first low around 1830 for the construction of wave 3.2 down. Starting a recovery past that point. It looks like there is more room for a further up retracement. Probably to the level of the S2 pivot resistance and a bit further up to the S1 pivot level, the 100 daily average and price resistance around 2000. But there is a convergent move between the index and the stochastic indicator. This means that most probably we are now getting a correction for the last wave down, but a continuation of the down move once this correction finishes. The next longer term down target is 1740 and 1600.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: January 9, 2016.

Some 3 weeks ago, I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move down to a first target at the level of the S2 pivot support of the month." The first part of the week we saw the pullback almost retracing completely the previous week down move. But Thursday and Friday finally ended with a lower closing price for the week. It looks like we should expect a further move down towards 1920-1930 to complete the wave 3.2 down. We have lower tops and bottoms and price moves below all averages inside a down moving pitchfork. Most probably there will be a pullback before reaching the wave 3.2 target. "

I looks like my prediction from already 3 weeks ago was very good. There was a pullback creating an extended wave 2, but the last week of 2015 the top of the pullback was reached and a continuation of the downtrend started. What was my expected target 3 weeks ago? Between 1930 and 1920. We are closing the first week of 2016 at, yes, 1922. On the daily chart we have now a valid 3.2 wave down. There is room for a further move down. Target is the low side of the down moving pitchfork, the S3 pivot support and the level of 1830. At that point we must expect some retracement. Longer term targets are 1730 and 1600 which I consider the minimum correction we should expect long term. Verify at the traderslibrary blog what I wrote on December 12, 2015: "Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975 and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be some up retracement the coming couple of weeks before moving to lower levels."

Sylvain Vervoort   Stocata.Org