Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 19, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "With the convergent move between price and the Stochastic RSI indicator, the logic thing would be a continuation of the down move for the creation of a wave 3 down." And yes we have already a confirmed wave 3 down. There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move down to a first target at the level of the S2 pivot support of the month. Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975 and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be some up retracement the coming couple of weeks before moving to lower levels."

Last week I mentioned: "There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move down to a first target at the level of the S2 pivot support of the month." The first part of the week we saw the pullback almost retracing completely the previous week down move. But Thursday and Friday finally ended with a lower closing price for the week. It looks like we should expect a further move down towards 1920-1930 to complete the wave 3.2 down. We have lower tops and bottoms and price moves below all averages inside a down moving pitchfork. Most probably there will be a pullback before reaching the wave 3.2 target.

Sylvain Vervoort Stocata.Org

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 12, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Two days the index was moving down nicely to the level of the 50 and 100 daily simple moving average, but once more it recovered almost completely on Friday. I already mentioned: "The last month of the year is always difficult because trading volume usually goes down and little volume has much more influence". With the convergent move between price and the Stochastic RSI indicator, the logic thing would be a continuation of the down move for the creation of a wave 3 down. Possibly to the level of the pivot support S2. I do expect a price move within a smaller trading range the rest of the month".

The past week I mentioned: "With the convergent move between price and the Stochastic RSI indicator, the logic thing would be a continuation of the down move for the creation of a wave 3 down". And yes we have already a confirmed wave 3 down. There may be some pullback, but I expect a further move down to a first target at the level of the S2 pivot support of the month. Downward price targets are at: 1995, 1975 and 1925. Longer term targets are at 1830 and 1740. But most probably there will be some up retracement the coming couple of weeks before moving to lower levels.

Sylvain Vervoort   Stocata.Org

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 5, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "The 4 day trading week with very small daily moves has not changed much. I have to repeat: "If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should continue the longer term down move the coming week. There is some room for extending the last E2 wave just a fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario before the down trend is resumed. I think we will know by the end of the coming week. On the other hand I do not believe in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather advice to profit from higher prices to start gradually opening short positions.".  We will start December the coming week. The last month of the year is always difficult because trading volume usually goes down and little volume has much more influence. Normally I do expect a smaller wave 3 down the coming week(s). Wait and see...".

Two days the index was moving down nicely to the level of the 50 and 100 daily simple moving average, but once more it recovered almost completely on Friday. I already mentioned: "The last month of the year is always difficult because trading volume usually goes down and little volume has much more influence". With the convergent move between price and the Stochastic RSi indicator, the logic thing would be a continuation of the down move for the creation of a wave 3 down. Possibly to the level of the pivot support S2. I do expect a price move within a smaller trading range the rest of the month.

Sylvain Vervoort   Stocata.Org