Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: November 28, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "There may be some short term retracement, but we should expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target for this is 1850.". If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should continue the longer term down move the coming week. There is some room for extending the last E2 wave just a fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario before the down trend is resumed. I think we will know by the end of the coming week. On the other hand I do not believe in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather advice to profit from higher prices to start gradually opening short positions.".

The 4 day trading week with very small daily moves has not changed much. I have to repeat: "If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should continue the longer term down move the coming week. There is some room for extending the last E2 wave just a fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario before the down trend is resumed. I think we will know by the end of the coming week. On the other hand I do not believe in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather advice to profit from higher prices to start gradually opening short positions.".  We will start December the coming week. The last month of the year is always difficult because trading volume usually goes down and little volume has much more influence. Normally I do expect a smaller wave 3 down the coming week(s). Wait and see...

Sylvain Vervoort Stocata.Org

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: November 21, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned a number of reasons for expecting a down move towards the 100 daily average support and the low side of the volatility channel. The index actually past the 100 average moving down to the PP pivot level of the month and the price level support of a previous correction wave E2, the 100% upper reference of the last up Fibonacci projection. It looks like we have a new longer term extended wave 2 correction for the top wave 3.12 in the weekly chart. Price also falls below the up moving wedge pattern. There may be some short term retracement, but we should expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target for this is 1850.".

Last week I wrote: "There may be some short term retracement, but we should expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target for this is 1850.". If this is the end of the upwards pullback we should continue the longer term down move the coming week. There is some room for extending the last E2 wave just a fraction higher. This is not an impossible scenario before the down trend is resumed. I think we will know by the end of the coming week. On the other hand I do not believe in a continuation of the long term up move. I rather advice to profit from higher prices to start gradually opening short positions.

Sylvain Vervoort   Stocata.Org

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: November 14, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Except for Monday, the daily moves were limited, but closing the week higher outside the wedge pattern. The upper side of the pattern may give some support. There are however a few indications pointing in the direction of the start of a possible move down. There is a bearish engulfing candle pattern at the top, a lot of incertitude with doji candles and the index reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected from the low in August and the top of the wave 3(E2) extended up reaction in September. Indicators are topping and showing some divergence. Reason why I expect in first instance a down retracement to the 100 average support and the low side of the volatility channel. ".

Last week I mentioned a number of reasons for expecting a down move towards the 100 daily average support and the low side of the volatility channel. The index actually past the 100 average moving down to the PP pivot level of the month and the price level support of a previous correction wave E2, the 100% upper reference of the last up Fibonacci projection. It looks like we have a new longer term extended wave 2 correction for the top wave 3.12 in the weekly chart. Price also falls below the up moving wedge pattern. There may be some short term retracement, but we should expect a further move down for the creation of a wave 3.3 down. The minimum target for this is 1850.

Sylvain Vervoort   Stocata.Org

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: November 7, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Only a small move the past week, bouncing against the resistance of the upper side of the wedge pattern, the R2 pivot resistance of the month and the upper side of the volatility channel. For the coming week we should expect a down correction toward the low side of the BBS channel, the low side of the wedge pattern, the 100 average, previous price level support and Fibonacci level support. From that point we then should have the last move up inside the wedge pattern, with a new higher high index, possibly just above the 2130 Fibonacci target.".

Except for Monday, the daily moves were limited, but closing the week higher outside the wedge pattern. The upper side of the pattern may give some support. There are however a few indications pointing in the direction of the start of a possible move down. There is a bearish engulfing candle pattern at the top, a lot of incertitude with doji candles and the index reached exactly the 161.8% Fibonacci target projected from the low in August and the top of the wave 3(E2) extended up reaction in September. Indicators are topping and showing some divergence. Reason why I expect in first instance a down retracement to the 100 average support and the low side of the volatility channel.

Sylvain Vervoort Stocata.Org