Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 31, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "The index will probably start the coming week with some limited higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 100 and possibly the 200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel.". The week started with a small down reaction, but moved up Thursday and Friday a bit above the expected level. If there will be a down reaction next week, watch the index turning from the top of an up moving wedge pattern. With this pattern, we must expect the index to break the lower side of the pattern. However, the wave count inside the wedge pattern may not yet be complete. There may be one more down and up reaction, Elliott wave 4 and 5 inside this pattern, before this wedge pattern ends. Anyway, we first should expect a down reaction the coming week towards the low side of the wedge pattern.".

Only a small move the past week, bouncing against the resistance of the upper side of the wedge pattern, the R2 pivot resistance of the month and the upper side of the volatility channel. For the coming week we should expect a down correction toward the low side of the BBS channel, the low side of the wedge pattern, the 100 average, previous price level support and Fibonacci level support. From that point we then should have the last move up inside the wedge pattern, with a new higher high index, possibly just above the 2130 Fibonacci target.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 24, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I commented: "I think some further move up is possible towards a 2050 level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the daily level I expect some down retracement first...". This is exactly what happened. Until Wednesday there was a small down correction, followed by a move up, breaking the previous top wave 3(E2), and as a result creating a new higher wave 3, close to the expected 2050 level. The index will probably start the coming week with some limited higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 100 and possibly the 200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel. From that point we must expect a reversal and a continuation of the long term down move.".

Last week I mentioned: "The index will probably start the coming week with some limited higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 100 and possibly the 200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel.". The week started with a small down reaction, but moved up Thursday and Friday a bit above the expected level. If there will be a down reaction next week, watch the index turning from the top of an up moving wedge pattern. With this pattern, we must expect the index to break the lower side of the pattern. However, the wave count inside the wedge pattern may not yet be complete. There may be one more down and up reaction, Elliott wave 4 and 5 inside this pattern, before this wedge pattern ends. Anyway, we first should expect a down reaction the coming week towards the low side of the wedge pattern.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 17, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote that the up correction might continue towards the 50 day average, a Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork and the R1 pivot resistance. Actually it went a bit higher coming close to the previous wave 3(E2) top price resistance. As I mentioned in the comments of the weekly chart, I think some further move up is possible towards a 2050 level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the daily level I expect some down retracement first, but be prepared for a continuation of the up move without a correction first. The next logical long term move would be a continuation of the long term down move started in August. ".

Last week I commented: "I think some further move up is possible towards a 2050 level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the daily level I expect some down retracement first...". This is exactly what happened. Until Wednesday there was a small down correction, followed by a move up, breaking the previous top wave 3(E2), and as a result creating a new higher wave 3, close to the expected 2050 level. The index will probably start the coming week with some limited higher prices for reaching the price resistance just above 2050, the 50 and possibly the 200 day average and the upper side of the volatility channel. From that point we must expect a reversal and a continuation of the long term down move.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 10, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "The past week started with a large down candle and moving even a bit lower on Tuesday, just not creating a lower low needed to create the wave 3.3 down. An up correction was started. This up correction may continue up to the 50 day average, a Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork, the R1 pivot resistance of the month and the upper side of the trading range. However, indicators show a convergent move with higher bottoms. This should confirm a continuation of the move down once the up correction is finished.".

Last week I wrote that the up correction might continue towards the 50 day average, a Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork and the R1 pivot resistance. Actually it went a bit higher coming close to the previous wave 3(E2) top price resistance. As I mentioned in the comments of the weekly chart, I think some further move up is possible towards a 2050 level, creating a larger 123 reaction wave. However shorter term on the daily level I expect some down retracement first, but be prepared for a continuation of the up move without a correction first. The next logical long term move would be a continuation of the long term down move started in August.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Is This The Bottom In Oil?

“The cure for low prices is low prices.” So says an old trading proverb. 

 

Low prices cause demand to increase and supply to be choked off.

 

I’ve been very bearish on oil for a long time. But should I change my opinion?

 

One of the keys to knowing when to buy again is demand.

 

Ace oil analyst Kent Moors says:

"The demand for oil is growing worldwide, with the global growth rate higher than at any point since 2010. According to oil demand statistics collected by the Joint Organization Data Initiative (JODI), oil demand rose 3.3% in the first half of 2015, compared to the same period in 2014.

 

This data comes from 59 countries that together account for about 80% of the world's oil consumption and suggests that in 2015 demand will increase by an average of 1.65 million barrels per day. This fits in line with the International Energy Agency's (IEA) estimate that global oil consumption this year will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day. 

 

The lion's share of the increase belongs to China, which reported a petroleum consumption growth of 1.3 million barrels per day, a more than 13% lift."

 

So this factor may be in play.

 

What about supply? Supply is still increasing. So that is not going to help the bull case.

 

Nonetheless, I’m seeing some strength in one of my Early Warning Indicators that the bottom is in place for oil.

 

I’ll tell you about it and give you some specific trade ideas tomorrow.

 

See you then!

 

Good Trading!

 

Courtney

 

P.S. Want to make a lot of money trading oil? I’ve just released a new course called How to Crush the Futures and Forex Markets. It’s all online so no travel expenses and you can get going right away. Every Monday for five weeks, I deliver to you a ton of great education. Then, on Wednesday night, we get together for a live coaching call on the Internet. Click here for more information. It starts on Monday! You can register by clicking here.

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: October 3, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "The (mainly Eastern) bulls were fighting to keep the index at high levels, but lost again the past week with a lower index. The only up closing day was on Monday. Thursday the index reached a previous low level, a Fibonacci target and the low side of the BBS channel. With the support from previous lows, the Fibonacci target and the low side of the BBS channel, a trading channel is formed. This may force a move up inside this channel before a new low for wave 3.3 is formed. However we must expect a further move down to the S1 support pivot target of the month, the low side of the volatility channel and the 1850 Fibonacci target the coming week(s). ".

The past week started with a large down candle and moving even a bit lower on Tuesday, just not creating a lower low needed to create the wave 3.3 down. An up correction was started. This up correction may continue up to the 50 day average, a Fibonacci target around 1970, the median line of the up moving pitchfork, the R1 pivot resistance of the month and the upper side of the trading range. However, indicators show a convergent move with higher bottoms. This should confirm a continuation of the move down once the up correction is finished.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/