Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 26, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I wrote: "The week closed higher, but failed to break resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more before continuing the move down for the creation of wave 3.3.". This expected up move happened the first half of the week, followed by the move down the end of the week. Finally closing the week slightly lower. We now have a 123 correction wave with a confirmed bearish harami candle pattern. This up correction is most probably an extended wave 2 correction for the large move down end of August. We now must expect a further move down for wave 3.3. The minimum target is around 1850, this is the S1 pivot support of the month, the previous low wave 3.2 and a Fibonacci target. The stochastic RSI is making a convergent move, basically indicating a further move down after the up correction.".

The (mainly Eastern) bulls were fighting to keep the index at high levels, but lost again the past week with a lower index. The only up closing day was on Monday. Thursday the index reached a previous low level, a Fibonacci target and the low side of the BBS channel. With the support from previous lows, the Fibonacci target and the low side of the BBS channel, a trading channel is formed. This may force a move up inside this channel before a new low for wave 3.3 is formed. However we must expect a further move down to the S1 support pivot target of the month, the low side of the volatility channel and the 1850 Fibonacci target the coming week(s).

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 19, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "After the Holiday on Monday the market made a move up. But Tuesday the up move ended against the resistance of the upper side of the BBS band, a previous price resistance and the PP pivot level of the month. The week closed higher, but failed to break resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more before continuing the move down for the creation of wave 3.3. The medium term down target is 1730.".

Last week I wrote: "The week closed higher, but failed to break resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more before continuing the move down for the creation of wave 3.3.". This expected up move happened the first half of the week, followed by the move down the end of the week. Finally closing the week slightly lower. We now have a 123 correction wave with a confirmed bearish harami candle pattern. This up correction is most probably an extended wave 2 correction for the large move down end of August. We now must expect a further move down for wave 3.3. The minimum target is around 1850, this is the S1 pivot support of the month, the previous low wave 3.2 and a Fibonacci target. The stochastic RSI is making a convergent move, basically indicating a further move down after the up correction.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 12, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned that we should expect a continuation of the move down. And yes, the index closed this week some 3% down. Next breaking the bottom of wave 3.2 will probably take a couple of weeks. But clearly we should expect a move to the next down target around 1730, first passing the previous low of wave 3.2 at 1865 and the S1 pivot support of the month around 1850. The coming week I first expect a further move down, probably followed by some correction. Closing the week might be around the same level as the past week. ".

After the Holiday on Monday the market made a move up. But Tuesday the up move ended against the resistance of the upper side of the BBS band, a previous price resistance and the PP pivot level of the month. The week closed higher, but failed to break resistance. Possibly the index will hit this resistance once more before continuing the move down for the creation of wave 3.3. The medium term down target is 1730.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: September 5, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "You had to be patient the past week if you wanted to close open long positions. Monday and Tuesday the index first made another large move down reaching a one reference point Fibonacci projection (yellow lines). Next retracing the complete down move the rest of the week. I mentioned the previous week: "start thinking of closing open long positions during the next up correction". The good time to do this was near the closing time on Thursday and Friday. We are close to a 50% retracement of the down move now. There is some more room for the up correction to the upper side of the BBS channel. But we should expect a continuation of the down move. We better keep in mind that we most probably have started a longer term down correction".

Last week I mentioned that we should expect a continuation of the move down. And yes, the index closed this week some 3% down. Next breaking the bottom of wave 3.2 will probably take a couple of weeks. But clearly we should expect a move to the next down target around 1730, first passing the previous low of wave 3.2 at 1865 and the S1 pivot support of the month around 1850. The coming week I first expect a further move down, probably followed by some correction. Closing the week might be around the same level as the past week.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/