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« July 2015 | Main | September 2015 »
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 31, 2015 at 11:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Last week I wrote: "We first got the further small up move towards the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. Followed by the double zigzag down, and faster than expected in just one week, we now have a valid wave 3.2 down. Most probably the index confirmed the long term reversal the past week. If you are not out already, better start thinking of closing open long positions during the next up correction. The index reached the 261.8% Fibonacci down projection over the last wave 2 correction. The next down target for wave 3.3 (or 3.2) is around 1900".
You had to be patient the past week if you wanted to close open long positions. Monday and Tuesday the index first made another large move down reaching a one reference point Fibonacci projection (yellow lines). Next retracing the complete down move the rest of the week. I mentioned the previous week: "start thinking of closing open long positions during the next up correction". The good time to do this was near the closing time on Thursday and Friday. We are close to a 50% retracement of the down move now. There is some more room for the up correction to the upper side of the BBS channel. But we should expect a continuation of the down move. We better keep in mind that we most probably have started a longer term down correction.
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on August 30, 2015 at 07:56 AM in Sylvain Vervoort, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Generally speaking, I don’t care what a company does for a living. I don’t care if they are in healthcare, utilities, or technology.
I really like to find companies that are making massive money and have weak competition. I like companies that are growing rapidly. I like companies that are basically in their own universe because they have a monopoly or near monopoly.
Which means that I don’t care what the company does but how well they do it.
I teach a course called Stock Success School where I teach how to find what I call Best of the Best Stocks. I teach my special criteria to find these stocks.
But I never actually have my students see what the company does. I want them to not get emotionally involved in the stock because that can cloud their opinion.
But there is one time that I recommend you look at the company’s business.
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Thanks!
Good trading,
Courtney
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 29, 2015 at 05:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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2015 demand should end up at 76.5 bcf per day (bcf/d), or 27.9 tcf for the entire year. This is up 4.08% from 2014.
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 28, 2015 at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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I read a lot of newsletters. Probably too many.
One tactic used by some of them is called a lowball or stink bid.
Should you use stink bids?
I’ve put together a short video about what they are, how to use them, and whether or not you should use them.
Thanks!
Good trading,
Courtney
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Posted by Courtney Smith on August 26, 2015 at 04:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Yesterday, I did a live webinar on the current stock market crash (click here to watch the free replay). I predicted that the market would rally today. But is this the bottom?
No. We have more to go on the downside.
Today’s price action was great at the beginning of the day but faded very badly later in the day.
I bought more puts on SDS which is a double inverse ETF on the S&P 500. I’ll look again closely on the open and may take profits then.
China lowered interest rates and dropped their reserve requirements and that caused a strong rebound in the US stock market on the open.
As a trading principle, the news is not important. What is important is the market’s reaction to the news.
The initial reaction was bullish, but the late reaction was bearish. In other words, the market ended up acting bearishly to bullish news.
That is very bearish.
So I look for the bear market to continue.
I’ll continue to update you daily as we go through this situation.
But I suggest that you subscribe to my new Market Forecast Video Newsletter to keep up with all the ways to profit from this market. You can subscribe and get more info by clicking here!
You owe it to yourself to subscribe right now!
Thanks!
Good trading,
Courtney
P.S. The weekly Market Forecast video newsletter is on special right now if you subscribe for a full year! Click here now!
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 26, 2015 at 09:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Last week I wrote: "On Wednesday, the index went down as expected to break the 200 day average and down to the level of the S1 pivot support, close to the expected 2050. That creates a valid wave 3 downwards. However not yet a wave 3.2 down. From that point the index corrected upwards now finding resistance at the level of the PP pivot of the month and the 50 and 100 average. There may be some further up move, up to the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. However I rather expect a double zigzag down move creating the wave 3.2 down in a couple of weeks".
We first got the further small up move towards the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. Followed by the double zigzag down, and faster than expected in just one week, we now have a valid wave 3.2 down. Most probably the index confirmed the long term reversal the past week. If you are not out already, better start thinking of closing open long positions during the next up correction. The index reached the 261.8% fibonacci down projection over the last wave 2 correction. The next down target for wave 3.3 (or 3.2) is around 1900.
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on August 22, 2015 at 07:23 AM in Sylvain Vervoort, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The Dow dropped over 2% today. Is this the beginning of the big crash that so many are predicting? Is this the beginning of a major bear market?
I don’t think so.
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 21, 2015 at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The Fed released their minutes from their last meeting and the consensus of commentators is that there is still a chance they will raise rates in September but that now December is a more likely time for them to raise it.
I have been saying for over a year that they would not raise rates this year. Here’s why:
Even if the Fed raises interest rates, it will only be by a smidgeon.
Now, how can we make money from it?
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The forex market is the hottest market around. Big leverage means you have the opportunity to make a lot of money quickly. But that same leverage can cost you a bundle if you don’t learn to trade forex correctly. Futures and Forex Intensive is the key course to teach you techniques that will help you profit from this explosive market place.
The course is designed by master trader Courtney Smith and taught by ace trader Jade Goodhue. This exciting live seminar is coming up on September 12-13 in Wealthbuilder’s classroom in Las Vegas.
Click here now for more information and to register!
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Here are some of the effects of keeping interest rates lower than expected:
Thanks!
Good trading,
Courtney
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 20, 2015 at 11:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Last week I wrote: "My assumption last week: "Because the last top is an extended wave 2 correction for top wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave 1. In that case, the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction and we should expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2". We got a nice move down most probably on the way creating a wave 3.2 down. Or at least a further correction down for the extended wave E2. There is some support from previous price levels and the 200 day average. Next support is at the low side of the volatility channel and the S1 pivot support of the month around 2050".
On Wednesday, the index went down as expected to break the 200 day average and down to the level of the S1 pivot support, close to the expected 2050. That creates a valid wave 3 downwards. However not yet a wave 3.2 down. From that point the index corrected upwards now finding resistance at the level of the PP pivot of the month and the 50 and 100 average. There may be some further up move, up to the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the downward pitchfork. However I rather expect a double zigzag down move creating the wave 3.2 down in a couple of weeks.
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on August 15, 2015 at 06:18 AM in Sylvain Vervoort, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Last week I wrote: "The correction down was completed on Monday, exactly at the level of the 200 day simple moving average. Because the last top is an extended wave 2 correction for top wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave 1. In that case, the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction and we should expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2. We are in the holiday; season reason why I do not expect great changes the coming week(s). I assume there will be a down correction the coming week, to complete a double zigzag correction in a couple of weeks".
My assumption last week: "Because the last top is an extended wave 2 correction for top wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave 1. In that case, the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction and we should expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2". We got a nice move down most probably on the way creating a wave 3.2 down. Or at least a further correction down for the extended wave E2. There is some support from previous price levels and the 200 day average. Next support is at the low side of the volatility channel and the S1 pivot support of the month around 2050.
You may like this: "Video - "One of the Most Useful Reports About Markets You Will Ever Read".
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on August 9, 2015 at 02:04 AM in Sylvain Vervoort, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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I once heard it said that people spend far more time trying to figure out which $700 refrigerator to buy than researching their next stock buy worth far more.
I hate to say but I think they are right.
I'll write more about this in other articles but, in this one, I want talk about one of my favorite techniques for making more money every year without learning any new techniques!
I'm talking about back testing.
Back testing is taking a technique and go back in history to see if the technique would have made or lost money.
I'm putting together a free video for you on how to do back testing. I'll probably send it out this week. So let me talk about back testing and its importance here.
****************************Advertisement*************************************
Want To Learn To Crush the Forex Market?
The forex market is the hottest market around. Big leverage means you have the opportunity to make a lot of money quickly. But that same leverage can cost you a bundle if you don't learn to trade forex correctly. Futures and Forex Intensive is the key course to teach you techniques that will help you profit from this explosive market place.
The course is designed by master trader Courtney Smith and taught by ace trader Jade Goodhue. This exciting live seminar is coming up on September 12-13 in Wealthbuilder's classroom in Las Vegas.
Click here now for more information and to register!
*************************************************************************************
Most people learn something about the market then simply start trading. They believe what they have heard and assume that it must be true.
They start trading, the results disappoint, and they stop trading as a loser.
There are really two problems here:
I recommend never trading a technique where you do not get the actual rules of the technique or get a rigorous testing of it. That will eliminate problem #1.
The second problem is solved by always back testing the technique before trading it.
How can you do this? Where do you get the back data? What is the procedure?
I'll send you out a video that goes into more detail about this later.
But here is a quick way to back test something.
How long will this take? Some techniques can be tested in just an hour if the technique doesn't trade too often. Other techniques, which have a lot of trades, can take much longer.
You can also use computer programs that will do the testing for you. I'll tell you more in a future letter to you.
Back testing is a great way to see if your techniques worked in the past. Of course that doesn't mean that it will work in the future but the odds are that it will. The longer back you back test, the more confidence you should have that it works in the future.
Correctly done, back testing will likely direct you to techniques that make money and away from those that don't. This should put you in the category of being a winner right away.
Back testing is a way to being science to your trading and to put a massive edge in your favor.
P.S. Would you like to have my stock market forecast sent you to your free every week? Just click here to sign up! Did I mention it is free?
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 7, 2015 at 10:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The US Federal Reserve Bank has kept short term interest rates at zero for nine years.
The idea behind it was that super low interest rates would boost housing construction, capital investment, and boost bank profits.
Instead, it has done none of the above and instead has led to massive dislocations around the world.
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Here's how ace analyst Doug Kass puts it:
"But in maintaining monetary indulgence for such a long time, our central bank has now distorted – and screwed up – our economy and markets, perhaps for some time to come. I believe the Fed has:
Importantly, ZIRP is actually losing its effectiveness (at least in America). As I’ve written previously, low rates are hurting groups like the growing savings class – and they’ve been hoarding cash and reducing personal expenditures as a result, weakening growth.
The seeds of malinvestment have also begun to sprout from ZIRP. Low rates increase the supply of “stuff” (e.g., the mushrooming growth of shale oil), sustaining those companies and countries that shouldn’t be sustained and elevating asset prices against limited progress in the real economy."
I would add that it has created huge financial bubbles that will cause massive pain in the future.
We had a financial crisis in 2008 caused by too much risk and debt. The Fed's solution to that problem is to promote more risk and debt.
Totally insane!
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 6, 2015 at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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We extend this to our sports and hobbies and adventures, as well. The compelling belief that we’re almost in control, that we’re right at the edge, that this ski run or this play or this experience will be the one we earned through our extensive planning and investment and skill.
Financial advisors and travel businesses and everyone in between peddles us the story that if we just team up with them, we’ll get exactly what we expect, that it will all be as we dreamed it to be.
Posted by Courtney Smith on August 5, 2015 at 10:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Posted by Courtney Smith on August 1, 2015 at 06:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Last week I wrote: "Last week I mentioned: "Is this up move an exaggerated reaction as a result of the Greek agreement and will this remain a wave 2 correction, or should we await a new higher top? The index is still within the limits, but at the top of the ongoing distribution. There my be a small new top coming up, but you should be careful taking any new long position. Make sure a possible up move is large enough. Personally I do rather expect a move down the coming week". And yes, as expected, we had 4 days in a row a move down, retracing the move up of the week before, falling back to a support and resistance level of previous price levels, the median line of a downward pitchfork and the PP pivot level of the month. There may be some correction but we should expect a further move down creating a down wave 3.2.".
The correction down was completed on Monday, exactly at the level of the 200 day simple moving average. Because the last top is an extended wave 2 correction for top wave 3.23, we can consider the down move that followed a new wave 1. In that case, the up correction of the past week is possibly a new wave 2 correction and we should expect a wave down creating a new wave 3.2. We are in the holiday; season reason why I do not expect great changes the coming week(s). I assume there will be a down correction the coming week, to complete a double zigzag correction in a couple of weeks.
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
Posted by Sylvain Vervoort on August 1, 2015 at 02:29 AM in Sylvain Vervoort, Technical Analysis | Permalink | Comments (0)
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