Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 27, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "We had the retracement only on Monday, straight to the S1 pivot support. Next 3 days an up correction followed by a retracement on Friday from the resistance of the upper side of the slower downward pitchfork channel. I have to repeat what I mentioned last week: a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move", but a move up with a new higher high for a wave 3.24 towards the R1 pivot level seems to have a good chance".

Last week I mentioned: "On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move". It looks like this top will be confirmed with an extended correction wave 2 for the last up wave 3.23. If this down move is confirmed the coming week, the index is on the way to a first wave 3.1 down. This will bring the index back to the S1 pivot support of June and further to the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork, the low side of the volatility channel and the 200 day average. The possible creation of the wave 3.1 down would be a first strong indication that the distribution ends and the long term down move has started. We have to wait for this wave 3.1 down to be sure that wave 3.23 up is a top wave for the longer term. Be prepared...

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 20, 2015.

Last week I wrote: "I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel". The index first made the down move towards the S1 pivot of the month coming close to the median line of the slower and faster downward pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel. Followed by a fast strong up move to the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the fast downward pitchfork. Finally turning down on Friday back into the fast downward pitchfork. The scenario I mentioned last week, a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move after the retracement towards the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel. Personally I think this has a better chance.

We had the retracement only on Monday, straight to the S1 pivot support. Next 3 days an up correction followed by a retracement on Friday from the resistance of the upper side of the slower downward pitchfork channel. I have to repeat what I mentioned last week: a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move", but a move up with a new higher high for a wave 3.24 towards the R1 pivot level seems to have a good chance.

Sylvain Vervoort:   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 13, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
Last week I wrote: "For the coming week I expect a further move down towards the levels of the longer term median line of the down moving pitchfork possibly towards the low side of the volatility band and the low side of the trading range". The index went down and reached the 100 average. You can see the possible creation of a hidden divergence between the index and the indicators. I can see two possibilities. Either the down move continues the coming week creating a convergent move, or an upswing is coming with a hidden divergence that possibly will create a new higher wave 3.24, also because the index is not reaching the median line of either the shorter or longer term down moving pitchforks. I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel.

Last comment I wrote: "I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel". The index first made the down move towards the S1 pivot of the month coming close to the median line of the slower and faster downward pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel. Followed by a fast strong up move to the upper side of the BBS channel and the upper side of the fast downward pitchfork. Finally turning down on Friday back into the fast downward pitchfork. The scenario I mentioned last week, a new higher high is still possible as a result of the hidden divergence between the index and the indicators and the index not reaching the median lines of the downward pitchforks. On the other hand it looks like there is a convergent move building between tops, which points in the direction of a further down move after the retracement towards the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel. Personally I think this has a better chance.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 6, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
Last week I commented: "Distribution is ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming week, falling back into the trading range". The index went down to support from the level of the low side of the BBS band and the 50 day average. The index moves towards the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork (red) and we can see a new shorter term pitchfork (orange) showing a faster down move. For the coming week I expect a further move down towards the levels of the longer term median line of the down moving pitchfork possibly towards the low side of the volatility band and the low side of the trading range.

Last week I mentioned: "For the coming week I expect a further move down towards the levels of the longer term median line of the down moving pitchfork possibly towards the low side of the volatility band and the low side of the trading range". The index went down and reached the 100 average. You can see the possible creation of a hidden divergence between the index and the indicators. I can see two possibilities. Either the down move continues the coming week creating a convergent move, or an upswing is coming with a hidden divergence confirmed that possibly will create a new higher wave 3.24,also because the index is not reaching the median line of either the shorter or longer term down moving pitchforks. I rather expect a small retracement followed by a continuation of the down move towards the S1 pivot support, the median lines of the pitchforks and the low side of the volatility channel.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/