Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 30, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
The index closes the week a fraction higher, enough to create a new top wave 3.23 with only small moves the whole week. Monday, US markets are closed. Distribution is ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming week, falling back into the trading range. There will be support from the R1 pivot level, the low side of the BBS band, the 50 day average and the PP pivot level. I believe there is a good chance that this distribution phase will end with a long term move down. Looking at action/reaction, I expect a first reaction within a couple of weeks.

Last week I commented: "Distribution is ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming week, falling back into the trading range". The index went down to support from the level of the low side of the BBS band and the 50 day average. The index moves towards the median line of the longer term downward pitchfork (red) and we can see a new shorter term pitchfork (orange) showing a faster down move. For the coming week I expect a further move down towards the levels of the longer term median line of the down moving pitchfork possibly towards the low side of the volatility band and the low side of the trading range.

Sylvain Vervoort:  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 23, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
I mentioned last week: "I would not exclude a new small higher top the coming week". And that is what happened, with an index high a fraction below the last top wave 3.22. Once more there was first a correction back to the PP pivot level of the month, but the up move from there closed the week a fraction higher. We are still in a longer term distribution trading range. Considering the long term up move, the distribution may still take more time. The index moved out of the down moving pitchfork, but should be considered normal since the index moves within a horizontal trading range. For now we should expect the index to remain in that trading range. Even a small new top is possible. However, I assume that this distribution phase will end with a larger move down. Be careful taking long positions now. I assume we will have a correction the coming week within the trading range.

The index closes the week a fraction higher, enough to create a new top wave 3.23 with only small moves the whole week. Monday, US markets are closed. Distribution is ongoing with I guess a lower index the coming week, falling back into the trading range. There will be support from the R1 pivot level, the low side of the BBS band, the 50 day average and the PP pivot level. I believe there is a good chance that this distribution phase will end with a long term move down. Looking at action/reaction, I expect a first reaction within a couple of weeks. HERE you can find my latest comments on the EURUSD forex pair.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 16, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
The past week we had the same story as the week before. The index started with a higher price on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the index retraced back to the median line of the downward moving pitchfork (I changed the start of the median line), finishing a 123 correction wave down. Thursday was the start of a new up move. We have a convergent move with higher bottoms and higher tops. I would not exclude a new small higher top the coming week.

I mentioned last week: "I would not exclude a new small higher top the coming week". And that is what happened, with an index high a fraction below the last top wave 3.22. Once more there was first a correction back to the PP pivot level of the month, but the up move from there closed the week a fraction higher. We are still in a longer term distribution trading range. Considering the long term up move, the distribution may still take more time. The index moved out of the down moving pitchfork, but should be considered normal since the index moves within a horizontal trading range. For now we should expect the index to remain in that trading range. Even a small new top is possible. However, I assume that this distribution phase will end with a larger move down. Be careful taking long positions now. I assume we will have a correction the coming week within the trading range.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 9, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
The index still moves mainly in a trading range. Monday there was a slightly higher high top wave 3.22, but also the start of the retracement back into the trading range. The index found support at the low side of the BBS channel, the 50 day average and the new PP pivot level based on the price levels of the previous month of April. From that point there was an up correction on Friday. There is a negative divergence between the index and the Stochastic RSI. I have also drawn the latest possible down moving pitchfork. I assume that the index will move further down towards the low side of the trading range, the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the price support around 2040. However, the trend is still in an up move inside the trading range with higher bottoms and tops. So, we must not exclude the next higher top wave 3.23...

The past week we had the same story as the week before. The index started with a higher price on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the index retraced back to the median line of the downward moving pitchfork (I changed the start of the median line), finishing a 123 correction wave down. Thursday was the start of a new up move. We have a convergent move with higher bottoms and higher tops. I would not exclude a new small higher top the coming week.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: May 2, 2015.

Last week I wrote: 
Like I mentioned last week: "On the other hand we have to keep in mind that a triangle is a continuation pattern. Here for a continuation of the up move. So, once more hard to decide what can be expected the coming week". The triangle pattern wins the game with a new higher high wave 3.22. The convergent move with higher tops and bottoms in both the index and the Stochastic RSI is probably a good sign for a further move up de coming week(s) and possibly a sign for a limited reaction only. Price is moving once more back inside the up moving pitchfork and will find support on the level of previous high levels and the R1 pivot resistance, now giving support.

The index still moves mainly in a trading range. Monday there was a slightly higher high top wave 3.22, but also the start of retracing back into the trading range. The index found support at the low side of the BBS channel, the 50 day average and the new PP pivot level based on the price levels of the previous month of April. From that point there was an up correction on Friday. There is a negative divergence between the index and the Stochastic RSI. I have also drawn the latest possible down moving pitchfork. I assume that the index will move further down towards the low side of the trading range, the median line of the down moving pitchfork and the price support around 2040. However, the trend is still in an up move inside the trading range with higher bottoms and tops. So, we must not exclude the next higher top wave 3.23...

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/