Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 28, 2014.

Last week I wrote: 
"Last week I mentioned "Monday and Tuesday little movement, a consolidation with slightly higher prices. From Wednesday, the start to a new higher high with a new top wave 3.15, close to the target of 1966 that I mentioned last week. A higher top fifteen times in a row, that is extreme. We are now reaching the upper side of the up moving pitchfork, the R2 pivot resistance of the month, close to the upper side of the volatility channel and far away from all averages. I expect this long term up move to end any time. However, before that the index most probably will reach 2000 or even 2030, the next long term Fibonacci target.".

A slightly higher top on Tuesday touching the R2 pivot level of the month, but at the same time the start of a reaction down back to the R1 pivot level. The rest of the week was an up move to correct the correction, closing the week a fraction lower. We have a negative divergence in the indicators comparing the lower tops of the indicators with the higher tops of the index. Basically a good reversal sign. However, the bigger down candle on Tuesday is not confirmed yet as a reversal. Like I mentioned last week: a higher top fifteen times in a row, that is extreme. We are far away from all averages and reached once more the upper side of the pitchfork channel and the upper side of the volatility channel. Turning down now may come as a surprise this close to the 2000 level. Make sure you are prepared ...

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 21, 2014.

Last week I wrote: 
"Last week I mentioned "there may be some pullback". After the higher high of Monday the pullback was started from the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and the upper side of the volatility channel. There is no divergence between the indicators and the index. The BBS channel expert signal is still long. I expect some further price consolidation, but a new top wave 3.15 after that. Targets are 1966 (R2 pivot resistance), 2000 (historical high) and 2030 (next long term Fibonacci).".

Monday and Tuesday little movement, a consolidation with slightly higher prices. From Wednesday, the start to a new higher high with a new top wave 3.15, close to the target of 1966 that I mentioned last week. A higher top fifteen times in a row, that is extreme. We are now reaching the upper side of the up moving pitchfork, the R2 pivot resistance of the month, close to the upper side of the volatility channel and far away from all averages. I expect this long term up move to end any time. However, before that the index most probably will reach 2000 or even 2030, the next long term Fibonacci target.

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 14, 2014.

Last week I wrote: 
"The expected target was 1950 and we got 1949.44, that is close enough! We are now reaching the upper side of the volatility channel, the upper side of the pitchfork channel and the R1 resistance of the month of June. The next Fibonacci targets are at 1966 and 2031. There may be some pullback, but I still expect a higher index, minimum to 1966, which is the next Fibonacci target and the R2 pivot resistance. And we should not exclude the index to reach 2000 some weeks from now".

Last week I mentioned "there may be some pullback". After the higher high of Monday the pullback was started from the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and the upper side of the volatility channel. There is no divergence between the indicators and the index. The BBS channel expert signal is still long. I expect some further price consolidation, but a new top wave 3.15 after that. Targets are 1966 (R2 pivot resistance), 2000 (historical high) and 2030 (next long term Fibonacci).

Sylvain Vervoort  http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: June 7, 2014.

Last week I wrote: 
"No reaction, no flat move, the only correct remark last week was: "... since we are still moving up, a new top wave 3.14 is possible". The index broke the R1 pivot resistance and moved up very close to the 1926 historical Fibonacci target. It looks like the index will continue the move up towards the next target around 1950. This is the upper side of the up moving pitchfork channel, the R2 pivot resistance of may and a measured move (the height of wave 3.13) target. To early to say, but the bulls may even push the index up to a magical 2000 level the coming weeks".

The expected target was 1950 and we got 1949.44, that is close enough! We are now reaching the upper side of the volatility channel, the upper side of the pitchfork channel and the R1 resistance of the month of June. The next Fibonacci targets are at 1966 and 2031. There may be some pullback, but I still expect a higher index, minimum to 1966, which is the next Fibonacci target and the R2 pivot resistance. And we should not exclude the index to reach 2000 some weeks from now.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/