Traders' Library Blog

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 28, 2013.

All the best for 2014!!!

Last week I wrote: 
"The low on Wednesday reached the 50 day moving average, coming close to the S1 pivot support. But it turned up the same day back to the previous top. Friday there was a new higher high creating the new top wave 3.8 moving close to the R1 pivot resistance. It looks like the 1830 to 1850 is still a possible end of the year target. I do expect a further move up to the upper side of the volatility band. The expert turned green again. I still have the short position with insurance holding a call option January 1800".

As expected, the index moved to the upper side of the volatility band, bringing wave 3.8 also close to the R2 pivot resistance and the upper side of the up moving pitchfork. With a high of 1844.9 the index is now very close to the long time expected 1850. I believe there is a fair chance reaching this level next week. I may take profit on my short insurance call option with a strike price at 1800 the coming week. I believe we are reaching the top and I think we must be prepared for a longer term reaction down that may start the coming weeks.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 21, 2013.

Last week I wrote: 
"We have a first warning for a downward reversal with a lower top and a lower bottom. For now I do expect a further small move down towards the S1 pivot support, the 50 day average and the low of the volatility channel. From that point there will be most probably an up correction wave 2 or even a new top wave 3.8 since we are still the closing of the year month of December. The shorter term targets are 1720 as a down target and 1830 for I believe a still possible up target. I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800".

The low on Wednesday reached the 50 day moving average, coming close to the S1 pivot support. But it turned up the same day back to the previous top. Friday there was a new higher high creating the new top wave 3.8 moving close to the R1 pivot resistance. It looks like the 1830 to 1850 is still a possible end of the year target. I do expect a further move up to the upper side of the volatility band. The expert turned green again. I still have the short position with insurance holding a call option January 1800.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 14, 2013.

Last week I wrote: 
"Some reaction back to a support level, but closing the week at about the same level as the previous week. No change in what I wrote last week: A last possible Fibonacci historical projection has a target at 1843 (261.8%). If the index will continue to move up, what I am expecting for the month of December, if not a flat move, this is the next target. However, we should expect a larger correction beginning 2014. The index is far above all averages, we are close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and indicators are topping. I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800".

We have a first warning for a downward reversal with a lower top and a lower bottom. For now I do expect a further small move down towards the S1 pivot support, the 50 day average and the low of the volatility channel. From that point there will be most probably an up correction wave 2 or even a new top wave 3.8 since we are still the closing of the year month of December. The shorter term targets are 1720 as a down target and 1830 for I believe a still possible up target. I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: December 7, 2013.

Last week I wrote: 
"Small daily moves and a small higher closing price the past week. Closing at the R1 pivot level of November. A last possible Fibonacci historical projection has a target at 1843 (261.8%). If the index will continue to move up, what I am expecting for the month of December, this is the next target. However, we should expect a larger correction beginning 2014. The index is far above all averages, we are close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and indicators are topping. I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800".

Some reaction back to a support level, but closing the week at about the same level as the previous week. No change in what I wrote last week: A last possible Fibonacci historical projection has a target at 1843 (261.8%). If the index will continue to move up, what I am expecting for the month of December, if not a flat move, this is the next target. However, we should expect a larger correction beginning 2014. The index is far above all averages, we are close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and indicators are topping. I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Stocata S&P 500 Analysis: November 30, 2013.

Last week I wrote: 
"As expected 1800 is broken. The index reached the R1 pivot resistance level and a 161.8% Fibonacci target with a historical projection from previous tops. The next up target is around 1825. We are close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and the upper side of the volatility band. From the previous week comment, I like to repeat: "it may take up to the beginning of 2014 before we will see the start of a reaction. Whenever this reaction starts I do expect a longer term down move". I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800".

Small daily moves and a small higher closing price the past week. Closing at the R1 pivot level of November. A last possible Fibonacci historical projection has a target at 1843 (261.8%). If the index will continue to move up, what I am expecting for the month of December, this is the next target. However, we should expect a larger correction beginning 2014. The index is far above all averages, we are close to the upper side of the up moving pitchfork and indicators are topping. I still have the short position and an insurance with the call option January 1800.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/