Traders' Library Blog

Great Setup in the E-Mini S&P 400

The E-Mini S&P 400 has developed one of my favorite trading setups, which means this E-Mini could be ready for a significant breakout opportunity.

Inside Value Setup

The 15-minute chart of the E-Mini S&P 400 (EMDH3) shows an Inside Value relationship has developed, which usually leads to a solid breakout in the upcoming session.

The Inside Value setup occurs when the current day's Value Area (the dotted lines) develops inside the prior day's Value Area (blue horizontal lines). Essentially, this setup shows that price is coiling, and could be due for a breakout very soon, likely in the upcoming trading day.

Without a doubt, this setup contributes perhaps the majority of my biggest trades, which is why I featured it in my book, Secrets of a Pivot Boss.

Keep in mind, since FOMC news looms ahead, this pattern could continue to develop rather than breakout.

The Game Plan

If the EMD opens the session with a gap out of range and value, we could see a solid unidirectional trending move in the direction of the gap for the first few hours of the day.

However, it is very important that the right opening relationship occur. That is, while the setup is extremely promising, price must open with a gap out of the prior day's price range (or very close) in order for the full effect of the pattern to play out.

Therefore, we'd like to see price open below 1,088.50 or above 1,097.50, as an open of this magnitude would indicate that initiative participants are eager to seek new value. However, If price opens within range and value, this is an indication that price is not ready to see big movement, and instead may lead to further sideways development.

Since the 10-day ADR is 9.9, we'll keep our eyes on the following initial ADR targets: Bull targets of 1,104.3 and 1,106.8; Bear targets of 1,084.5 and 1,082. Adjust these targets once the overnight high and low are recorded.

If you want to read more about ADR Targets, check out this article Find the BEST Real-Time Targets.

Let's see how this one plays out!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa

PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

Top 10 Forex Events Outlook: Jan. 28 - Feb. 1

Jan. 28, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com) – From the U.S. Q4 2012 GDP estimate, to the Fed’s monetary policy decision and the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, the week ahead will be all about gauging the condition of the world’s largest economy, the next move by the U.S. central bank, and the future direction of the U.S. dollar.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    USD- U.S. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring pending home sale contracts, Mon., Jan. 28, 10:00 am, ET.

Shrinking inventories could lead to a smaller increase in the pending home sales index by 0.5% m/m in December, following 1.6% m/m in November and a record 5.2% m/m jump in October.

2.    USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence, a measure of consumers’ outlook on the economy, Tues., Jan. 29, 10:00 am, ET.

The outlook of U.S. consumers is forecast to turn less optimistic, pushing the consumer confidence index lower to a reading of 64.8 in December from 65.1 in the previous month.

3.    USD- U.S. ADP Employment Report, a measure of job creation in the private sector of the U.S. economy, Wed., Jan. 30, 8:15 am, ET.

Job creation in the U.S. private sector is forecast to cool off with up to 165K jobs added in January, compared with 215K jobs in December.

4.    USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Wed., Jan. 30, 8:30 am, ET.

The preliminary estimate of the Q4 2012 GDP is forecast to show the U.S. economy growing at a much slower pace by 1.2% q/a in the final quarter of last year, compared with 3.1% q/a in the third quarter. Weakening U.S. economic growth could raise a red flag, souring investors’ mood and reducing risk appetite.

5.    USD- U.S. FOMC- Federal Open Markets Committee Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Jan. 30, 2:15 pm, ET.

The Fed has made it very clear that policy makers are committed to an open-ended QE until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5% or inflation exceeds 2.5%, so we know that QE is here to stay and that current conditions still "warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014." In other words, the Fed will stay the course at its January meeting and quite possibly for the rest of the year. The greenback could come under pressure if the FOMC statement assures the markets that the Fed's aggressive QE and record low rates are not going away anytime soon.

6.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Jan. 30, 3:00 pm, ET.

Although not expected to tighten monetary policy at this meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remains as one of the most likely candidates to hike rates. However, should the central bank sound rather dovish and push further the timeframe of such move, the NZD could suffer the consequences just as the CAD did in the aftermath of the Bank of Canada’s announcement last week.

7.    USD- U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of consumer income and spending, released along with the PCE Price Index- the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, Thurs., Jan. 31, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to increase by 0.4% m/m in December, same as the 0.4% m/m reading in November. The Fed’s preferred core PCE Index could inch slightly higher by 0.1% m/m after staying flat in the previous month.

8.    USD- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation, the main indicator of U.S. economic health measuring job creation and unemployment, Fri., Feb. 1, 8:30 am, ET.

Consensus forecasts point to another month of decent job creation in line with the recent trend of improvement in the U.S. labor market. The U.S. economy is expected to add up to 168K jobs in January compared with 155K in December, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 7.8%. An upbeat NFP report could boost investor sentiment and risk appetite, and could weigh on the U.S. dollar.

9.    USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Feb. 1, 9:55 am, ET.

The revised reading of the U.S. consumer sentiment index is forecast to confirm the drop to 71.4 in January, compared with 74.9 in the previous month.

10.    USD- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring activity in the manufacturing sector, Fri., Feb. 1, 10:00 am, ET.

Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector is forecast to expand for another month with an index reading of 51.0 in January from 50.7 in December.

Starwood Hotels is Ready to Move

Starwood Hotels & Resorts (HOT) is testing significant resistance, and could be on the verge of a major move ahead. Here's why…

Resistance at $61

The daily chart shows HOT is currently testing a significant area of resistance at the $61 level. As a matter of fact, this level has been resistance for two years, and every test at this level has led to several stern rejections.

In 2012, the average move away from the $61 level was 20%, so we could be on the verge of a similar move very soon.

Also, it's interesting to note that the monthly R2 Floor Pivot sits right at $61.12, providing a solid confluence of resistance. Clearly, a breakout or reversal away from this level could lead to some exciting price action.

Compression

Over the last two years, every reversal away from the $61 level has been swift and sharp, similar to v-bottom reversals.

However, this is not the case this time around, as HOT has been trading within a highly compressed trading range below $61 for the last 15 sessions. In my opinion, this compression could signal an even bigger move ahead, regardless of direction.

The Range Ratio indicator shows the average 15-day price range is significantly smaller than usual, as evidenced by two consecutive readings below 0.75. Readings below 0.75 usually signal impending breakouts, so watch the outer boundaries of the 15-day trading range for a confirmed move.

For reference, I've marked similar ranges from the last few months that have yielded great results.

The Game Plan

Thursday's bearish Outside Day reversal candlestick pattern hints at a sell-off ahead. However, a break back below the monthly R1 pivot and through the bottom of the 15-day range at $58.95 will confirm selling pressure. Here are the bear targets to watch: $56, $54, and $52.

On the bull side, watch $61.15 for signs of strength. A break beyond this level could spark initiative buying participation, which could pave the way for big strength ahead. Here are the bull targets to watch: $64.50, $65.50, and $66.35.

Keep in mind, price will likely continue to build out within the boundaries of the tight range until a decisive breakout occurs. Be patient, and ready.

Let's see how this one plays out!

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Cheers!

Frank Ochoa

PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

E-Mini NASDAQ Poised for a Breakout

After a few weeks of range bound activity, the E-Mini NASDAQ 100 seems poised for a major breakout opportunity. Here's why…

Major Compression

The daily chart shows the E-Mini NASDAQ 100 is trading within the boundaries of a highly compressed price range.

As it turns out, this price range actually encompasses the year's trading thus far. The fact that markets ebb and flow between compression and expansion phases, leads me to believe we'll likely see a breakout from this trading range soon.

As a matter of fact, the Range Ratio calculation shows the current average 10-day price range is vastly tighter than normal (a reading below 0.75), which is usually a precursor to explosive breakouts and range expansion.

Furthermore, the NQ has formed an Inside Day pattern, whereby the last day's price range fell within the price range of the preceding session. This pattern usually leads to breakout opportunities, as well.

Targets to Watch

Regardless of direction, a breakout should yield solid results. As a matter of fact, I'm estimating that a move of around 98.25 points could be seen over the upcoming 10 days.

You see, the current average 10-day price range is 78.50 points. When price breaks free from highly compressed ranges, it tends to move a distance of about 125% of the current average multi-day range (78.50 x 1.25 = 98.25). Of course, this is just a Rule of Thumb, but you'd be surprised how accurate this calculation can be.

With resistance being 2,752, and support being 2,700, we're looking at 10-day targets of 2,850.25 for Bulls and 2,601.75 for Bears. Guess what? The monthly R2 Floor Pivot is sitting at 2,852.25, and the monthly S1 pivot is 2,586.25, which are very close to the MDR calculations above.

Keep in mind, the NQ may continue to churn slowly within the trading range over the next few days. However, once the market sees a worthy catalyst, look for a potentially big breakout opportunity to occur.

Read more here...

Top 10 Forex Events Outlook: Jan. 21-25

Jan. 21, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com) – The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting and the U.K. Q4 2012 GDP estimate will place the yen and the pound in the center stage in the week ahead as traders expect an announcement of additional easing measures by the Japanese central bank and cautiously watch the U.K. data for signs of a triple-dip recession.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a list of the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    JPY- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Tues., Jan. 22, around 12:00 am, ET.

The new Japanese government is very committed to its plans to spur growth, to weaken the yen and to fight deflation. Political pressure on the Bank of Japan has been mounting and could force the central bank to cave in by announcing more QE, while also changing its inflation target from 1% to 2%, as requested by the Prime Minister. In a report last week, Reuters cited sources at the Bank of Japan that the bank “will set 2% inflation as a new target and will also consider making an open-ended commitment to buy assets until the target is in sight.” If this is what the Bank of Japan announces, a version of “QE Forever” by the Japanese central bank might be something that has not been fully priced into the yen exchange rate and could give further impetus to yen selling.

2.    EUR- Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the outlook of financial experts, Tues., Jan. 22, 5:00 am, ET.

The ZEW institute survey is expected to show significant improvement in economic outlook with a reading of 12.0 in January compared with 6.9 in the previous month.

3.    USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Tues., Jan. 22, 10:00 am, ET.

In line with the trend of improvement in the housing market, sales of existing homes in the U.S. are forecast to increase to 5.09 million in December, compared with 5.04 million in November.

4.    GBP- Bank of England Meeting Minutes, a detailed report of the bank’s latest meeting containing an outlook on economic policy and economic conditions, Wed., Jan. 23, 4:30 am, ET.

Recent U.K. data has failed to instill confidence in the economy and has renewed concerns of a triple-dip recession. The minutes would probably confirm that policy makers did not think that a change in monetary policy in January was necessary. However, this doesn’t mean that the Monetary Policy Committee is not standing ready to expand the size of its QE operations if economic conditions deteriorate. The GBP could see pressures mounting, especially if the minutes remind the markets that the Bank of England’s QE door is not completely shut yet.

5.    CAD- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Jan. 23, 10:00 am, ET.

The Bank of Canada will not be in a hurry to make any changes to its existing monetary policy and will be likely to leave the benchmark rate at the current 1.0% level. On the other hand, compared with the rest of the major central banks, the Bank of Canada still remains as the most likely candidate to tighten monetary policy later in 2013 or early 2014 and the CAD should benefit from such expectations.

6.    JPY- Japan Trade Balance of the difference between imports and exports, Wed., Jan. 23, 6:50 pm, ET.

A month after the yen started its decline in November, the benefits of a weaker currency could be reflected in the December trade balance data with the deficit forecast to narrow down to 534 billion yen, compared with 953.4 billion in the previous month.

7.     EUR- Euro-zone Composite PMI- Purchasing Managers Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, Thurs., Jan. 24, 4:00 am, ET.

Despite of some small improvements expected, the euro-zone manufacturing and services indexes are forecast to stay in contraction territory below the 50 boom/bust line for another month with manufacturing activity at 46.5 in January from 46.1 in December and services at 48.0 in January compared with 47.8 in the previous month. With economic growth still nowhere to be seen, the report could weigh on the EUR by increasing the odds that the European Central Bank might be forced to consider additional monetary policy easing measures in the near future.

8.    EUR- Germany IFO Business Climate Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring the outlook of businesses, Fri., Jan. 25, 4:00 am, ET.

The business outlook in the euro-zone’s largest economy is forecast to improve with an increase in the Ifo index to 103.0 in January, compared with a reading of 102.4 in the previous month.

9.    GBP- U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Fri., Jan. 25, 4:30 am, ET.

Following three consecutive quarters of contraction, the U.K. returned to growth in Q3 2012, but the economy is forecast to take a turn for the worse and to contract again by 0.2% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2012. The Q4 GDP estimate could escalate fears of a triple-dip recession in the U.K., putting pressure on the GBP on expectations of more QE by the Bank of England.

10.     USD- U.S. New Home Sales, an important gauge of housing market conditions measuring sales of newly constructed homes, Fri., Jan. 25, 10:00 am, ET.

The consensus forecasts point to yet another upbeat housing market report with sales of new homes in the U.S. expected to increase to 385K in December from 377K in November.

S&P 500 2013 Outlook: Massive Correction Ahead?

Here's my 2013 market outlook for the S&P 500, wherein I discuss medium and long term analysis, and reveal why I believe it's time to begin preparing for a potentially large correction ahead. Read More…

Medium Term Outlook

I can't help but feel a little deja vu when I see the daily chart of the S&P 500 cash index. You see, the index has gotten a very nice bullish start to the year by breaking through the top of the clearly-defined triangle pattern, which developed over the course of the last four months of 2012.

As it turns out, the index started the 2012 year in much the same way, but the triangle pattern was quite a bit larger than the current version. I wrote about the 2012 triangle last year (HERE), and my analysis was fairly on point.

This time around feels similar, only I believe we're at the tail end of a very decent 4-year bull trend. More on this later.

The daily chart shows the $SPX got a clean breakout through the upper line of the triangle on the first trading day of 2013 (just like last year). So far, prices have held fairly decently just 9 trading days into the new year.

Since the backend of the triangle measures about 130 points, I'll be looking for the $SPX to approach a target of about 1,545 within the next three months, with an outside chance of reaching as high as 1,580.

Keep in mind, the S&P is currently testing a very important wall of resistance at 1,475, which also corresponds to the monthly R2 Floor pivot. If the index cannot rise beyond this level soon, we could be looking at a near-term sell-off that could spark a test of the monthly pivot range at around 1,425.

Watch 1,475 and 1,450 for short term directional conviction.

Long Term Outlook

While the triangle in the daily chart indicates short to medium term strength ahead, I'm afraid the weekly chart is giving off vibes of stalling, or perhaps worse.

Take a look at the weekly chart, and the five arrows I've drawn. The big rebound of 2009 shows a very bullish wave of price movement from the 666 bottom, complete with a nice steep slop.

The second arrow shows another wave of nice strength, but the move fell short of the distance covered during the first wave of the bull trend.

The third, fourth, and fifth waves of strength all covered vastly less distance, with each new high being relatively lower than its predecessors.

What does this tell me? The market is showing signs of exhaustion, or stalling. While the market has rallied strong for four straight years, the current price structure of the trend indicates we could be due for quite a correction ahead - one that could lead to a 20%-plus decline.

Watch 1,340

While there is no imminent sell-off danger, we'll want to keep a very close eye on 1,340, as a violation of this level could be the spark that starts a major correction. Not only would breaking 1,340 represent a break through the most recent long term higher low, but it would also be a confirmed break through the yearly pivot range (pink lines), which oftentimes spells more selling ahead.

If, or when, the time comes and a break through 1,340 occurs, look for price to test each of the first two yearly pivot levels at S1 and S2, 1,299 and 1,171 respectively, with an outside shot to reach S3 at 1,083.

Within the longer term context of this index, 1,100 should continue to hold as long term support, and could represent a very solid buying opportunity for the next major wave of strength.

In terms of timing, look for the index to remain short term bullish out of the recent daily chart triangle for the next few months. Pay attention to the month of May very closely for signs of weakness, as the well known axiom "sell in May, and go away" could be the catalyst that leads to the larger correction we've just discussed.

What are your thoughts on this analysis? Tell me what you think in the comments section below!

I'm looking forward to seeing how this one plays out!

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Cheers!

Frank Ochoa

PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

Top 10 Forex Events Outlook: Jan. 14-18

Jan. 14, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com) – With some EU leaders already declaring the end of the debt crisis, notable data scheduled for release in the week ahead from the world’s first and second-largest economies will offer an opportunity for a fresh new assessment of global economic conditions.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    EUR- Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Mon., Jan. 14, 5:00 am, ET.

Following last week’s disappointing factory orders and industrial production reports from Germany, it would not be surprising to see weaker than expected figures from the entire euro-area, despite of the forecasts for a small 0.2% m/m increase in November from the 1.4% m/m drop in October.

2.    GBP- U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, Tues., Jan. 15, 4:30 am, ET.

Inflationary pressures in the U.K. are forecast to remain at 2.7% y/y in December, same as the 2.7% y/y reading in the previous month. With some economists voicing concerns about the possibility of a triple-dip recession in the U.K., inflation will not be an obstacle if the Bank of England finds it necessary to ease monetary policy further in upcoming months.

3.    USD- U.S. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, Tues., Jan. 15, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is expected to inch higher for a second month with retail sales rising by 0.2% m/m in December following the 0.3% m/m increase in November.

4.    USD- U.S. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Wed., Jan. 16, 8:30 am, ET.

The inflation gauge of the world’s largest economy is forecast to stay at 1.8% y/y in December, still far from the 2.5% level designated by the Fed to signal the end of its aggressive monetary policy easing. The USD should stay under pressure if traders continue to price expectations that the Fed’s QE is not going away anytime soon.

5.    USD- U.S. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Wed., Jan. 16, 9:15 am, ET.

Forecasts point to another month of increase, but at a slower pace, as industrial output rises by 0.3% m/m in December, compared with 1.1% m/m in the previous month.

6.     AUD- Australia Employment and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of labor market conditions measuring job creation and unemployment, Wed., Jan. 16, 7:30 pm, ET.

The Australian economy is forecast to add up to 2,500 jobs on December- less than the 13,900 created in November, while the unemployment rate rises to 5.4% from 5.2% in the previous month.

7.    USD- U.S. Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring new construction, Thurs., Jan. 17, 8:30 am, ET.

In line with the recent trend of improvement in the U.S. housing market, housing starts are forecast to rise to 880K in December, compared with 861K in November.

8.    CNY- China GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Thurs., Jan. 17, 9:00 pm, ET.

Growth in the world’s second-largest economy is expected to pick up the pace with an increase to 7.8% q/y in the fourth quarter of 2012 from 7.4% q/y in Q3. Stronger Chinese economic data should boost investor sentiment, risk appetite and the higher-yielding currencies.

9.    GBP- U.K. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, Fri., Jan. 18, 4:30 am, ET.

After the unimpressive flat reading in November, the U.K. retail sales are forecast to increase by 0.2% m/m in December. Should consumer spending disappoint again, pressures on the GBP could mount on expectations that the Bank of England might be forced into additional QE as economic conditions deteriorate.

10.     USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Jan. 18, 9:55 am, ET.

The outlook of U.S. consumers is forecast to become more optimistic with a preliminary sentiment index reading of 75.1 in January, compared with 72.9 in the previous month.

Top 10 Forex Events Outlook: Jan. 7-11

Jan. 7, 2013 (Allthingsforex.com) – The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meetings will take the center stage in the week ahead as traders await to find out if these two major central banks will follow the Fed’s footsteps by expanding their monetary policy easing efforts.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    EUR- Euro-zone Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, Tues., Jan. 8, 5:00 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the euro-area is forecast to increase by 0.1% m/m in November, compared with the 1.2% m/m drop in October.

2.    EUR- Germany Factory Orders, a leading indicator of economic conditions measuring orders placed with manufacturers, Tues., Jan. 8, 6:00 am, ET.

The largest economy in the euro-zone could see a decline in industrial activity with factory orders expected to drop by 1.4% m/m in November after rising by 3.9% m/m in October.

3.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Wed., Jan. 9, 5:00 am, ET.

The final Q3 GDP reading is expected to confirm that the euro-area is in a double dip recession with a second consecutive quarter of contraction by 0.1% q/q in the third quarter, after the economy shrank by 0.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2012. The report could raise the odds of more easing by the European Central Bank, including a potential rate cut, and could keep the euro under pressure.

LMT Bullish Gartley Pattern

A Bullish Gartley Pattern recently completed on Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT on NYSE.) The XA leg of the Gartley pattern indicates the direction of the trend and the AB=CD symmetry indicates the completion of a correction against the trend. The intent is to identify the completion of the correction at the projected D point and then to open trading positions in the direction of the trend. The trade setup was complete on December 14th, 2012 when LMT traded at 89.38 at the 1.1 line. At this point we would be looking to buy one tick above the high of the most recent low bar.   

On December 18th, our stop order to buy was hit and LMT quickly moved to hit our first two profit targets.

As seen above, the trade worked. Our favorite method of managing a trade like this is with the Single In/Scale Out method of money management as described in the book The Gartley Trading Method: New Techniques to Profit From the Market's Most Powerful Formation. To learn about this effective trade management technique, click here to watch an instructional video. To identify Gartley Patterns before they complete, check out our free introductory video course at at www.geometrictrading.com 

 

 

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