Traders' Library Blog

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: AUD, NZD and CAD Q2 2010 Outlook

In the broadcast today: AUD, NZD and CAD Q2 2010 Outlook. As we wind down the Q1 2010 and look ahead at the Q2 2010, we focus on the AUD, NZD and CAD and explore what the new quarter may bring for the commodity currencies against the USD and other currency majors, we analyze the latest trend developments with the USD/CAD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD currency pairs, we examine the price behavior of the EUR/USD pair for signs of a trend reversal attempt, we continue to monitor the anticipated strengthening of the USD, EUR and AUD vs. JPY, we highlight the market's reaction to what looks like the next phase of the Greek debt drama, the Japanese Manufacturing PMI, the U.K. Consumer Confidence, the Euro-zone HICP and Unemployment Rate, and the U.S. ADP Employment Report, we discuss new forecasts from Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York-Mellon and Royal Bank of Canada, and prepare for a sequence of important economic data scheduled for release in the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

ETFs For Currency Debasement

By Kevin Grewal, Editor at www.SmartStops.net

As developing nations around the world have turned to government funded stimulus packages to ignite their economies, a nation’s debt and currency debasement should be of much concern. 

Most recently, a study indicated that the U.S. national debt has ballooned nearly 12 fold over the last 30 years.  Additionally, over this same time span the ratio of debt to GDP has gone from nearly one-third to 85%.  During this time of exploded debt, GDP has only expanded 5.3 times, indicating that debt is growing at twice as fast as the U.S. economy.  Similar trends have been seen in Europe, in particularly Greece, Spain and Portugal.

Some concerns of this exponential growth in debt include hyperinflation, as a result of printing more currency, a decline in the value of a nation’s currency, better known as currency debasement, and increased costs of borrowing, which make it difficult to chip away at deficits.

Some experts suggest that this trend in the developing world, in particularly the United States, is likely to continue as nations have become accustomed to borrowing extraordinary amounts of money and printing extra currency to stay afloat.  If this is the case, than inflation will be inevitable and currency values will diminish. 

Some possible ways to protect against currency debasement and increases in inflation include the following: 

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: EUR, USD, GBP and JPY- Where is the Edge?

In the broadcast today: EUR, USD, GBP and JPY- Where is the Edge? In preparation for the Q2 2010, we examine the EUR, USD, GBP and JPY in search for clear fundamental and technical advantages of certain currency majors over others that could reveal potential opportunities in the weeks and months ahead, we analyze the latest trend developments with the EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD currency pairs, we continue to keep an eye on the possibility for impending bullish breakouts for the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY pairs, we explore what the Q2 2010 may have in store for the commodity currencies CAD, AUD and NZD vs. the USD, we highlight the market's reaction on the first day of trading for the newly-issued Greek bonds, the Japanese Industrial Production, the U.K. GDP, and the U.S. Consumer Confidence, we discuss new forecasts from Deutsche Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, and prepare for the important economic data scheduled for release in the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Japan Could Pose An Opportunity

By Kevin Grewal, Editor at www.SmartStops.net

The world’s second largest economy has been struggling to get back on its feet and emerge from its worst recession since World War II. However, recent data suggests that Japan’s economic recovery efforts are finally starting to reach households and its economy could finally be starting to stabilize paving the road to opportunity. 

According to Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, consumer demand and spending has been on the rise.  Higher demand for automobiles, energy and machinery has pushed retail sales up in February, marking the second straight month of increases, and nearly 4.2%. 

In fact, despite negative publicity and suspension of U.S. production for five days, the world’s largest automaker, Toyota Motor Corporation (TYM), boasted an increase in production in nearly all of its regions.  In fact, Toyota boosted output 83% from a year earlier and February was the seventh straight month the automaker has witnessed jumps in production.

This trend has further trickled down to automakers Honda Motor Company (HMC) and Nissan Motors.  Honda is boasting production increases of nearly 49% from a year earlier and Nissan’s production is up nearly 72%. 

Current Bullish Spotlight Selection

By: David Vomund

Our current Bullish Spotlight selection:

This week's selection is Radiant Systems (RADS). RADS is in an uptrend using both daily and weekly charts. Whereas the market closed near its daily low last Thursday and Friday, RADS closed near its daily high. Friday's move came on above average volume. As a result of this activity, its Money Flow indicator is very strong. This is a good selection for longer-term investors.

To see our current newsletter, visit www.visalert.com and click Sample 2.

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Should We Expect JPY Weakness on Carry Trades in Q2 2010?

In the broadcast today: Should We Expect JPY Weakness on Carry Trades in Q2 2010? Two days ahead of the end of the fiscal year in Japan, we take a close look at the JPY and explore the potential for a strong comeback of the JPY carry trades in the Q2 2010, we note the strategic positioning for possible breakout of several major Yen-related currency pairs and  analyze the latest trend developments with the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY pairs, we follow up the on the Euro's correction against the USD after last week's EU Summit, we examine this morning's return of risk appetite and its impact on the commodity currencies CAD, AUD and NZD vs. the USD, we highlight the market's reaction to the Japanese Retail Sales, the German CPI, the Euro-zone Economic Sentiment, the U.K. Mortgage Approvals, and the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, we discuss new forecasts from JPMorgan-Chase, Bank of New York-Mellon and Royal Bank of Scotland, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Learning Video_37: Swing Trading GCI Week_03

This is the third video of the life swing trading example using the stock GCI. Idea is that you follow the trade evolution systematically learning to apply technical analysis techniques. Please note, this is not an invitation to trade this stock, information given is to be used for training purposes only.

Not much change on the daily chart but there were a couple of opportunities on the hourly chart.

Sylvain Vervoort
http://stocata.org/

S&P500 Analysis Update March 27, 2010.

In the daily chart we are waiting for a bearish harami confirmation at the top. There is a negative divergence in the BB%b indicator in the lower window and there are short term negative divergences in all other indicators. I would consider the down move confirmed when breaking the last red uptrend line.

In the hourly chart we will probably move first back up to the 20 period moving average of the Bollinger bands.

In the weekly chart there is room for a further up move. Probably up to the level of the 200-weeks average. Let's wait and see what will happen next week.

We have either started a long term up move since the price bottom in March 2009 and we expect next a correction wave 2 of a higher degree after finishing this up move, followed by a long term wave 3 up move. This is a very optimistic long term view, probably to good to be true?

Another possibility with the wave {5} now close to completion is that the index finished a medium term correction wave A up and we expect next the medium term correction wave B down, with an index remaining above 650 but most probably higher.

Anticipate Entry/Exit and Risk/Reward

An excerpt from Intra-Day Trading Tactics course book from Greg Capra.

Chapter 4

Moving Average Concepts: Smoothing Out the Trend

Anticipate Entry/Exit and Risk/Reward

Support and resistance levels help you anticipate when and where the actual setup occurs and aids you in timing your decisions better. Finding the entry/exit must involve checking these levels, and the key is found in proximity between moving averages and price. Figure 4.5 demonstrates this.

Always look to the left of price and observe the moving average to find actual support or resistance points.  It’s going to help you anticipate entry and exit points and risk/reward.  The entry point is found at the very end of the chart, following the correction from the first point of resistance. Note the horizontal arrow showing these two points; by the pattern in the price and the trend of the two MAs, you can see that this second rise is likely to be overcome.

The distance between moving averages defines potential reward levels. In other words, you can interpret this pattern by assuming that the 200-MA is a future price potential level, and, by the same argument, that your risk is found below the point where COG occurs. These observations also work in reverse. If you were to flip these patterns, the entry/exit and risk/reward would also flip and take the opposite points.

The Trading Week: Mar. 28 - Apr. 2

Mar. 26, 2010 (Allthingsforex.com) – In the week ahead traders will focus on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation report for signs of whether the world’s largest economy will stop losing and start adding jobs which could extend the rally in equities and commodities, but could also raise the odds for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, helping the U.S. Dollar to retain its bullish stance against the Euro and the Yen.  

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a quick look at the most important economic events that every currency trader should pay attention to.

Sunday, Mar. 28 will begin the trading session with a notable report- the Japanese Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, at 7:50 pm, ET.

Monday, Mar. 29 will start with the preliminary estimate of the German CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, expected around 2:00 am, ET.

News from the U.K. will bring the Bank of England Mortgage Approvals, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring newly issued home loans, at 4:30 am, ET, along with the U.K. Net Lending to Individuals, a gauge of consumer credit conditions, also at 4:30 am, ET.

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Will the USD Bullish Trend Continue Next Week?

In the broadcast today: Will the USD Bullish Trend Continue Next Week? In preparation for the new trading week filled with important economic data, we focus on the recent strong USD trend and explore what next week's events may bring for the Greenback and other major currencies, we analyze this morning's relief rally for the EUR and the latest developments with the EUR/USD and EUR/CHF currency pairs, we follow up on the bullish breakout of the USD/JPY pair and note the increasingly bullish forecasts for the USD vs. the JPY, we take a close look at the price corrections of the commodity currencies CAD, AUD and NZD against the USD, we list the Top 10 spotlight events that will move the markets in the week ahead, we examine the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we highlight the market's reaction to the EU summit's agreement on a bailout for Greece, the Japanese CPI, and the U.S. GDP and Consumer Sentiment, we discuss new forecasts from Citigroup, BNP Paribas and UBS, and prepare for the trading week ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Candlesticks, bonds, and the iPad

Technical Picture – Bearish Topping Candlesticks (Wall St. Warrior)

Divergences in New Highs and Lows (TraderFeed-  Dr. Brett Steenbarger)

2-Year International Markets (The Chart Addict)

Dollar Index Headed Higher (MrSwing)

Income Investors Perk Up to Starbucks (SeekingAlpha)

A Mole, Investing In A Hole (Random Roger)

Did ObamaCare Spook the Bond Market? (Plant Yelnick)

Apple iPad: Shares Rise as Analyst Ups Unit Sales Estimates (WSJ-MarketBeat)

Berkshire Hathaway Sells Moody’s For 2cd Time This Week (market folly)

A Comparison of Recent “Unpredeceented” Rallies in the Dow Jones (Afraid to Trade)

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: What Should We Expect for the EUR after the EU Summit?

In the broadcast today: What Should We Expect for the EUR after the EU Summit? As the EU Summit of leaders from the Euro-zone begins, we continue to focus on the EUR and explore the possible outcomes of this long-anticipated meeting and how it could impact the trend of the EUR vs. the USD and other currency majors, we analyze the latest developments with the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs, we examine whether this morning's economic data from the U.K. has proven helpful for the GBP, we note the bullish breakout for the USD vs. the JPY, we follow up on the anticipated strengthening of the NZD vs. USD after the positive Gross Domestic Product report from New Zealand, we highlight the market's reaction to the European Central Bank policy reversal announcement, the U.K. Retail Sales, the German GfK Consumer Sentiment survey, and the U.S. Jobless Claims, we discuss new forecasts from Goldman Sachs and Standard Bank, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Join John Person at his free webinar- Person's Pivots

Who: John Person
What: Free Exclusive Webinar
When: Tuesday, April 6, 2010| 5:30 PM EST
Where: Click Here to Register

Person's Pivots: Learn the Revolutionary Way to Trade with This Amazing New Indicator

Join John Person, professional trader, system developer and author of several popular trading books, how to use this powerful and effective indicator that helps pin-point early turn signals ahead of the crowd. This amazing tool not only helps traders detect a change in a markets trend value it also helps uncover the next time period's potential range or trading target levels. It is one of the most powerful leading price indicators available and John will show the audience how to correctly apply this indicator in order to determine whether one should be buying dips or selling rallies based on the markets predicted market condition. He will also show you how to successfully implement this trading tool for day traders, short term scalpers, as well as longer-term swing traders for all the major markets including stocks, futures, and Forex.

 

Register now, seats are limited!

Position Sizing To Maximize Returns

In a time when market volatility and equity preservation is of utmost importance, determining the correct number of shares to buy, or “position sizing”, is key to maximizing returns and minimizing risk.

 

The common investor generally doesn’t spend much time thinking about how many shares to buy or how significant of a position to take.  Instead, most investors use a common methodology of trading the same number of shares each time, which usually translates to a specific dollar amount.  Other, more sophisticated investors, opt to allocate a certain percentage of their portfolio value to a specific position. Following this train of thought, a new position in a portfolio of $100,000 would transcribe either a $10,000, or 10%, investment or a usual position of 50 shares.

 

Although these methods may work for some, using the volatility of a specific portfolio is likely to be the most effective decision tool.  Measuring a portfolio’s overall volatility enables an investor to decide on what percentage of that portfolio he is willing to risk losing on the new position.  This methodology is better explained through the following example.

The Fail Safe "EMA" System

By: Chuck Hughes

The Fail Safe Exponential Moving Average System (EMA) is a technical based investing system that utilizes exponential moving averages to define "buy" and "sell" signals. Technical analysis is a discipline that focuses on historical price patterns, trends and quantitative analysis with the goal of determining future price movements in a stock or index.

 

For more information, please visit www.tradewins.com

 

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: How Much Further Could the EUR Fall vs. USD?

In the broadcast today: How Much Further Could the EUR Fall vs. USD? In light of this morning's renewed EUR weakness on Portugal's credit ratings downgrade and ahead of tomorrow's EU Summit, we examine the bearish breakout of the EUR vs. USD and explore what could be some important price levels that could be targeted in the near future should the EUR continue to decline further against the USD, we take a close look at the GBP after today's economic reports from the U.K. and analyze the latest trend developments with the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs, we continue to monitor the recent pullback of the NZD vs. USD ahead of the Gross Domestic Product report from New Zealand, we highlight the market's reaction to the Fitch Ratings' downgrade of Portugal's credit rating, the U.K. Annual Budget release, the German IFO Business Sentiment survey, the Euro-zone Composite PMI, and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, we discuss new forecasts from Deutsche Bank, Citigroup and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Pharma ETFs Likely Winner Of Health Law

By Kevin Grewal, Editor at www.SmartStops.net

Now that the historic Health Care Bill has been signed into law by President Obama, drug makers are likely to reap all the benefits and for good reason.

The overhaul of the healthcare system will likely add to the revenues of Big Pharma companies.  From a mere quantity perspective, the reform is expected to provide insurance coverage to more individuals, hence giving more people the ability to pay for prescription medication and pushing sales volumes up significantly. 

From a competition perspective, it appears that the pharmaceutical sector has won nearly a decade of protection against generic-like competition for biotech drugs.  Additionally, the law does not contain any measure which bars the sector from paying generic drug makers to delay the launch of less-expensive alternatives; in essence, cash heavy pharmaceutical firms have the ability to pay off more cost effective competitors who manufacture “knock-off” alternatives and control the prescription drug market.

Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: Make or Break Time for the GBP vs. USD?

In the broadcast today: Make or Break Time for the GBP vs. USD? In the aftermath of the U.K. inflation report and ahead of the U.K. Budget release and the U.K. Retail Sales- two events that could prove pivotal for the future trend of the GBP, we focus on the pound Sterling and analyze the latest developments with the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs, we continue to monitor the next phase of the Greek debt drama and examine the range-bound price action of the EUR/USD pair, we note the bearish breakout below 2008 lows for the EUR vs. CHF and ponder upon what could be the new "line in the sand" that may be drawn by the Swiss National Bank to prevent further CHF appreciation against the EUR, we take a close look at the NZD ahead of tomorrow's Gross Domestic Product report from New Zealand, we highlight the market's reaction to the latest news from Greece and the Euro-zone, the U.K. Consumer Price Index, and the U.S. Existing Home Sales, we discuss new forecasts from BNP Paribas and UBS, and prepare for the trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

Retail Remains Questionable

By Kevin Grewal, Editor at www.SmartStops.net

As the economy starts to recover and consumers start to come out of their shells, retailers have reaped the benefits of extra spending.  Some are even taking on additional efforts to retain these customers and their spending habits; however, the likelihood that these trends are sustainable is unclear.

According to the most recent report issued by the Commerce Department, a range of retailers boasted month over month gains, enabling the sector as a whole to show seasonally adjusted increases of 0.3% in February over the prior month.  Additionally, a Thomson Reuters index of 28 retailers suggests that sales at stores open at least one year, rose 4% in February compared with a year ago.  

Of all the retail sub-sectors, electronics and appliances saw the largest gains followed by groceries.  Despite wary consumer sentiment over the health of the economy, illustrated by the recent decline in the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer-sentiment index, which registered at 72.5, some retail experts suggest that consumers see the light at the end of the tunnel and are starting to upgrade their appliances and adding additional items to their shopping baskets at the checkout line.