Last week I wrote: "With 1295 we reach the target mentioned on the weekly chart last week. And here we said "the trend is down". With 5 times a lower low, this was certainly the case. We are falling out of the downward pitchfork and we are reaching support of the 200 day average. Next target down is around 1250, but I expect an up reaction before that with a correction wave 2 (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE) ".
We got an up correction to around 1330, close to what I thought would be a first target. There is no close short position signal from STS8 (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE). With about half of the STS8 rules you would expect a further up correction, but it is evenly possible that the downtrend will continue without a further correction now. The wave 2 correction is not yet confirmed. If we get a further up correction, it will probably move to between 1340 and 1350. Hard to predict next week, I believe there is a 50/50 change up or down.
The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% (with the low of the previous week; a paper profit of 86.5%) from the start in March 2009. We have a 123-wave, wave 3.1 down. We have to consider that it is not impossible that we started a long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert system remains black, we have an open short position (more about the expert system SVEPRExp HERE! Weekly chart HERE.