Sylvain Vervoort

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: February 25, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "Have we now reached the top of intermediate wave 5 (green)? Ready for correction wave 4 (blue)? Still hard to say because I believe it should have started passed week. But there is still no selling pressure. The start of the correction may take some more time".

A small further move up in this one day shorter trading week. One day the correction will have to start. Now may be a good moment reaching the rather strong resistance at 1370. However, except in the hourly chart, there is still no sign of a correction. Better wait to get out the long trade or going for a short trade. Since we had a good profit already a couple of weeks ago and expecting a correction I closed the long trade early and expect to go back in after correction wave 4. The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009.

Finally we have to consider that it is not impossible that we are already making the long term [C] wave down. We will have to wait and see if this is the case. However, since the medium term is up, it may not yet be the case. SATS5 is green, but we have closed the long position early.

Stocata FOREX Update EUR/USD: February 25, 2012.

Last week I wrote: " I still believe in a wave 4 correction for the S&P500. If that correction is started the coming week, the Euro will move further down too. There is room in all indicators for a further move down.".

The correction did not start. Contrary to the limited move in the S&P500 index, we got a rather large move up in the EURO, breaking the previous top A and the 100 day moving average. For the short to medium term I am now expecting the EURO to move up further to the level of the 161.8% Fibonacci target and the 200 day average around 1.375. While we are still looking out for a wave 4 correction in the S&P500 index, there may be a consolidating influence on the EURO. There is room in all indicators and time frames for a continuing up move of the EURO.

It looks like we are making the longer term wave [B] up. But! We still have to consider the possibility that the top in May was already the top of wave [B] and that we started the long term wave [C] down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. A target would be the 200 day average around 1.375. SATS5 is green with an open long position. In the last downward move SATS5 gave a very nice profit of 630 pips. In the move up there is now a profit of 427 pips for SATS5.

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: February 18, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "It looks like the correction for wave 4 started on Friday closing the week lower than the week before. I do expect in first instance a limited down move for this wave 4 correction in the order of only 20 to 30 points. It may be a flat correction contrary to the passed wave 2. Indicators are turning down.".

There was a flat move until Thursday when there was a bigger up move. Have we now reached the top of intermediate wave 5 (green)? Ready for correction wave 4 (blue)? Still hard to say because I believe it should have started passed week. But there is still no selling pressure. The start of the correction may take some more time.

Since we had a good profit already a couple of weeks ago and expecting a correction I closed the long trade early and expect to go back in after correction wave 4. The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009.

Finally we have to consider that it is not impossible that we are already making the long term [C] wave down. We will have to wait and see if this is the case. However, since the medium term is up, it may not yet be the case. SATS5 is green, but we have closed the long position early.

FOREX Update EUR/USD pair: February 18, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "As expected the EUR.USD moved up further the past week, Thursday finding resistance against the 100 day average. In line with the S&P500 index correction wave 4, I expect some more correction next week. And thinking about a limited correction for wave 4 in the S&P500 index, we can assume a limited correction for the Euro also. ".

We did not have the correction in the S&P500 index but we had a correction as expected, in the EUR.USD currency pair. Part of the down correction was recovered under influence of the bigger move up in the S&P500 on Thursday. I still believe in a wave 4 correction for the S&P500. If that correction is started the coming week, the Euro will move further down too. There is room in all indicators for a further move down.

It looks like we are making the longer term wave [B] up. But! We still have to consider the possibility that the top in May was already the top of wave [B] and that we started the long term wave [C] down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. A target would be the 200 day average around 1.38. SATS5 is green with an open long position. In the last downward move SATS5 gave a very nice profit of 630 pips.

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: February 11, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "The index went down to 1300.49 on Monday and continued the up move since then. Looking at the evolution now I think we have an intermediate extension impulse wave up (green numbers) for wave 3 (blue numbers). We have a valid intermediate impulse wave 5 and impulse wave 3. We are probably close to the end of these waves (1360?) and we should next expect correction wave 4 down".

A small further up move from Tuesday till Friday brought the index to a level of 1354.32, not too far away from the 1360 suggested target. But it looks like the correction for wave 4 started on Friday closing the week lower than the week before. I do expect in first instance a limited down move for this wave 4 correction in the order of only 20 to 30 points. It may be a flat correction contrary to the passed wave 2. Indicators are turning down.

Since we had a good profit already two weeks ago and expecting a correction I closed the long trade early and expect to go back in after correction wave 4. The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009.

We have to consider that it is not impossible that we are already making the long term [C] wave down. We will have to wait and see if this is the case. However, since the medium term is up, it may not yet be the case. SATS5 is green, but we have closed the long position early.

FOREX Update EUR/USD pair: February 11, 2012.

Last week I wrote: " The 50 day moving average is giving support. I do expect a further up move for the S&P500 (after a wave 4 correction). For that reason I think there will also be a further move up for the Euro the coming weeks. There will be resistance from the upper side of the down moving pitchfork and the 100 day average. Fibonacci targets are at 1.36 and 1.42".

As expected the EUR.USD moved up further the past week, Thursday finding resistance against the 100 day average. In line with the S&P500 index correction wave 4, I expect some more correction next week. And thinking about a limited correction for wave 4 in the S&P500 index, we can assume a limited correction for the Euro also.

It looks like we are making the longer term wave [B] up. But! We still have to consider the possibility that the top in May was already the top of wave [B] and that we started the long term wave [C] down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. A target would be the 200 day average around 1.38. SATS5 is green with an open long position. In the last downward move SATS5 gave a very nice profit of 630 pips.

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: February 5, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "I have the feeling that the correction is started. The put/call ratio both short and medium term are moving up with a flat price move. So, we have another warning for a down correction. Indicators are turning down. For now I think the total correction will be small (1280?)".

The index went down to 1300.49 on Monday and continued the up move since then. Looking at the evolution now I think we have an intermediate extension impulse wave up (green numbers) for wave 3 (blue numbers). We have a valid intermediate impulse wave 5 and impulse wave 3. We are probably close to the end of these waves (1360?) and we should next expect correction wave 4 down. I do not expect a large correction. Probably just back to 1300 once more before starting wave 5 up. Targets are 1440 and 1550.

Since we had a good profit last week already and expecting a correction I closed the long trade early and expect to go back in after correction wave 4. The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009.

We have to consider that it is not impossible that we are already making the long term [C] wave down. We will have to wait and see if this is the case. However, since the medium term is up, it may not yet be the case. SATS5 is green, but we have closed the long position early.

FOREX Update EUR/USD pair: February 5, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "Contrary to the S&P500, there was a much higher closing on Monday in the EUR.USD. And since there was no correction started in the S&P500, the EUR.USD continued the up move. I expect next week a further up move to the upper side of the downward pitchfork and the 100 day average around 1.33. But probably already next week followed by a downward correction once the S&P500 starts moving down".

The down correction in the S&P500 was limited to Monday with a further move up the rest of the week. The EUR.USD did not follow this up move, but rather consolidated the strong move up of the previous week. The 50 day moving average is giving support. I do expect a further up move for the S&P500 (after a wave 4 correction). For that reason I think there will also be a further move up for the Euro the coming weeks. There will be resistance from the upper side of the down moving pitchfork and the 100 day average. Fibonacci targets are at 1.36 and 1.42.

It looks like we are meking the longer term wave [B] up. But! We still have to consider the possibility that the top in May was already the top of wave [B] and that we started the long term wave [C] down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. A target would be the 200 day average around 1.38. SATS5 is green with an open long position. In the last downward move SATS5 gave a very nice profit of 630 pips.