The previous week expected higher index lasted only 2 days, reaching the resistance of the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement level. The rest of the week price fell back to the up trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Within the next couple of weeks, price will most probably break out of the triangle pattern and if broken to the lower side it will be a continuation pattern for the downtrend.
This looks being confirmed by a up moving wedge pattern, with a high probability for a break to the downside. Indicators are not helping, because they can move either way for the moment.
With our comment of last week: "Short term we can expect resistance from the 200 and 100-days moving average and the 50% retracement level". We decided to take profit for the manual trade, when the turning point was confirmed on Wednesday. This is mentioned in the results table.
The SATS2 automatic long trade is still open.
I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. I am also working on a new SATS5 system expert. First results look good with higher and more reliable profit rates than SATS2. If all is ready we will be using this expert in the future. SATS5 works fine even in very small time frames like 1 minute on the Emini future and Forex EUR/USD. More later on...
Elliott wave count:
Looking at the Elliott count, we may be finishing correction wave [2], now followed by a long term wave [3] up. This looks like a very optimistic long term view, most probably to good to be true! Another possibility is that the index finished a medium term correction wave (A) down and we expect next the medium term correction wave (B) up. Next followed by the wave (C) down, with an index remaining between 950-900 for the construction of the correction wave [2] at a lower point. However, since a single impulse wave ({1} to {5}) is normally not the end of a correction wave, there is a third possibility: we completed a long term correction wave [B] up and the index started are long term down move for correction wave [C]. This would be the worst case scenario with an index target below 650.
Pitchfork:
The index reached the median line of the up pitchfork a second time.
Fibonacci:
Price retraced to the 50% level which is close to the 200-day average.
Support/Resistance:
There is support at 1060, 1040 and 1010. There is resistance at 1120 and 1130.
Indicators:
Indicators are showing a indecisive flat move.
SVE_ARSI (14 periods) indicator:
Moving flat.
Slow Stochastic:
Moving flat.
SVE_RSI_Swing:
Moving up.
SVAPO:
Moving flat.
Volume:
Rather low, vacation?
SVE_BB%b_HA (18 periods):
Moving flat.
SVE_Inv_Fish_Stoch:
Down reversal.
SATS2 Expert:
The SATS2 expert is green, there is an open long position. We closed the manual long position. These trades are shown at the end of the page.
Hourly chart:
Sylvain Vervoort http://stocata.org/
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