Sylvain Vervoort

Update EUR/USD Forex pair: July 24, 2010.

The EUR/USD moved out of the pitchfork channel above the 50-day moving average and has broken now the 100-day average. Indicators are oversold and we will have a short term correction now. It is hard to say if the lowest point is already behind us. We will have to see if the next down move will move past the lowest low point. It is possible that we are making an up correction wave {B} and that a last correction wave {C} will come next. We only can wait and see to be sure. That last down move would bring the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart, where price finds support on the 200 months' moving average. Short term we expect an extension in the {B} up wave to a level of about 1.35.

 

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: July 24, 2010.

After a short term correction the previous week the index continued the up move.

Price broke out of the downward pitchfork and Friday the closing price broke the downtrend line. Short term we can expect resistance from the 200 and 100-days moving average and the 50% retracement level.

I think this will at least slow down the up move. There is however still some room in the indicators for a further up move. I expect a higher index the following days.

Both the manual and the SATS2 automatic long trades are open.

I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. I am also working on a new SATS5 system expert. First results look good with higher and more reliable profit rates than SATS2. If all is ready we will be using this expert in the future. SATS5 works fine even in very small time frames like 1 minute on the Emini future and Forex EUR/USD. More later on...

 

Update EUR/USD Forex pair: July 10, 2010.

The EUR/USD moved out of the pitchfork channel above the 50-day moving average and now coming close to the 100-day moving average. Indicators are oversold and we can expect a reaction soon. It is hard to say if the lowest point is already behind us. We will have to see if the next down move will move past the lowest low point. It is possible that we are making an up correction wave {B} and that a last correction wave {C} will come next. We only can wait and see to be sure. That last down move would bring the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart, where price finds support on the 200 months' moving average. Short term we have an extension in the {B} up wave to a level of about 1.30-1.35.

 

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: July 10, 2010

What did I say last week? I expect with all indicators oversold and the hourly chart making an up move, an intermediate up correction now. And yes this is what we got in this 4-day trading week.

Tuesday was very volatile and ended with a doji with a higher closing price than Friday before. All indicators were turning up from low oversold levels. So, I decided to open a new manual long position the next day if the up trend would be confirmed. I opened a new long position in the first hour of trading at 1034. On Thursday there was also a confirmation from the SATS2 expert. So, also here I opened a new long position, now at 1070.2.

Price and all indicators are moving up. I expect a further up move, in first instance probably to the level of the 200-day average around 1110.

I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. This will give some more entry and exit points, but the advantage is that it will also be faster at the main turning points. With SATS2 we will only trade long signals and we will not trade if it is obvious that we are looking at a "false" SATS2 signal.

Update EUR/USD Forex pair: July 3, 2010.

The EUR/USD moved out of the pitchfork channel above the 50-day moving average and now correcting up to the previous Fibonacci retracement level and the 100-day moving average around 1.30. It is hard to say if the lowest point is already behind us. We will have to see if the next down correction will move past the last low point. I think we are making an up correction wave (B) and that a last correction wave (C) will come next. We only can wait and see to be sure. That last down move would bring the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart. Price finds support on the 200 months' moving average. Short term we have an extension in the (B) up wave to a level of about 1.30-1.35. We expect this up correction to be in the order of 1000 pips.

 

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: July 3, 2010.

As written last week, I was expecting a wave (C) down to a level below 1040. Last Tuesday the big down move found some support on the level of previous lows, but on Wednesday the index closed below the 1040 level.

I do not think we have already reached the low point for the wave (C). However, I expect an intermediate up correction now. All indicators are oversold and the hourly chart is making an up move.

With the open manual short position we made a nice profit in a very short time period. Since I expect a short term up correction I am taking that profit and I closed the position near the closing on Friday. We made a 6.7% profit.

The index finished the long term up move since the price bottom in March 2009 and is making the longer term correction wave. We could hope for a correction wave 2 of a higher degree, followed by a long term wave 3 up move. This looks like a very optimistic long term view, most probably to good to be true!

Another possibility with the wave {5} up completed is that the index finished a medium term correction wave {A} up and we expect next the medium term correction wave {B} down, with an index remaining above 650 but most probably higher, in the range 900-850.

But we should not exclude that we have finished a long term correction wave [B] up and that the index will make a long term down move for the wave [C] below the start of the [B] wave or below 650. Wait and see...

I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. This will give some more entry and exit points, but the advantage is that it will also be faster at the main turning points. With SATS2 we will only trade long signals and we will not trade if it is obvious that we are looking at a "false" SATS2 signal.

Learning Video: Trading Fast Crossings Part_2

In this part 2 about fast reliable crossing averages, I will introduce the formulas for a technique called zero-lagging; to further reduce the lagging of the averages. I will make the specific required formulas available for MetaStock and for Metatrader.

Please note, this is not an invitation to trade using this technique, information given is to be used for training purposes only. Stocata.org will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on this information.

Smoothing data with less lag or the so-called zero lag technique have been proposed in Stocks & Commodities magazine by Patrick Mulloy in the February 1994 issue and by John Ehlers in the March 2000 issue. It is a technique to compensate the lag in a moving average.

Sylvain Vervoort   http://stocata.org/

Update EUR/USD Forex pair: June 26, 2010.

A historical Fibonacci projection gives a price target at 682% for wave [C] down around $1.16. If our last pitchfork does the job, we can expect to reach this level by end of July 2010. This brings the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart. Price found support on the 200 months' moving average. We are waiting for the completion of waves {C} and long term wave [C] down. If this scenario is correct, then the EUR/USD has completed wave (A) and is now making a correction wave (B) up before we get the final wave(C) down. We are now getting resistance from the Bollinger bands median line and from the upper side of the pitchfork. Short term we may have an extension in this (B) up wave to a level of about 1.30-1.35. We expected an up move in the order of 500 to 1000 pips. We have about 600 pips now.

S&P500 Technical Analysis Update: June 26, 2010.

As expected last week, the Elliot (B) correction wave up turned down already on Monday against the 50 and the 100 days moving average, the upper side of the Bollinger band and the 50% retracement level.

With that move we completed the correction waves C and (B).

In the candle chart we also had a bearish engulfing pattern, confirmed on Tuesday with a big black candle down. Since we expect a price below 1040, we had enough room to open a manual short trade. We opened a trade at 1095.3.

On Thursday there was a selling signal from SATS2. We closed the SATS2 long position at 1073.7.

Unless we get another extension of the up correction, we have completed the (B) correction wave and are on the way of making the wave (C) down, that should bring the index below 1040. 

Learning Video: Trading Fast Crossings Part_1

In this part 1, I will introduce you to fast but reliable crossing averages.

We already mentioned this crossover system in video 12 about heikin ashi recalculated prices. Here we elaborate further on the subject and we will make the specific required formulas available for MetaStock and for Metatrader.

Please note, this is not an invitation to trade using this technique, information given is to be used for training purposes only. Stocata.org will not accept liability for any loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on this information.

Sylvain Vervoort
http://stocata.org/