Sylvain Vervoort

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: June 9, 2012.

Sorry for being a bit late, I had no access to my website...

Last week I wrote: "The index is falling below the previous low, the 200 day average and again out of the down moving pitchfork. Not a good sign. We have a confirmed wave 3.2 down (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE) . All indicators are turning down after the up reaction wave 2. First target down is at 1267, but I do expect an up reaction soon".

Reaching a low of 1266.74 on Monday we were coming extremely close to our target of 1267. The candlestick doji, coming close to the S1 pivot support, was confirmed with a higher close on Tuesday, forming a morning doji star. However since it was closing against the resistance of the 200 day average, I waited for closing the short position. Rising above this average on Wednesday and moving up further together with complying most of the STS8 rules, I closed the short position at 1298.2 and opened a new long position at 1303.2. The result is shown in the trading result table below.

Wednesday we had a close Short/Open long signal from the STS8 expert (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE).

The total closed profit trading the index is 86.1% from the start in March 2009.

We have a 123-wave, wave 3.2 down, now expecting a wave 2 up.

My SVEPRExp expert system turned green, we have an open long position (more about the expert system SVEPRExp HERE.

Stocata FOREX Update EUR/USD: June 9, 2012.

Sorry for being a bit late. The connection to my website failed.

Last week I wrote: "About 6 of the 8 STS8 rules are confirming an up reaction, but we should wait for all 8 rules to comply (STS8 rules HERE). There is however a fair chance that we will get more up reaction next week".

We got the further up reaction as expected. A large move up on Monday, consolidating that level the rest of the week with mostly large moves. The expert system changed to color green on Wednesday, while all STS8 rules were complied with to close the short position, taking the profit of 446 pips and opening a new long position. We can expect a further move up next week. The expected target for the following week(s) is 1.28.

We have to consider the possibility that the top in May 2011 was a long term top and that we started the long term wave down since then.

My SVEPRExp expert is green. We closed the short position with a profit of 446 pips and are holding a new long position. More information about this expert system HERE.

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: June 2, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "With about half of the STS8 rules you would expect a further up correction, but it is evenly possible that the downtrend will continue without a further correction now. The wave 2 correction is not yet confirmed. If we get a further up correction, it will probably move to between 1340 and 1350. Hard to predict next week, I believe there is a 50/50 change up or down".

The S&P500 was nice enough to split the week in different pieces for me. Monday was a holiday, Tuesday an up move to the previously expected 1340 and the rest of the week for the down move. With a much more violent down move continuing the downtrend. The index is falling below the previous low, the 200 day average and again out of the down moving pitchfork. Not a good sign. We have a confirmed wave 3.2 down (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE) . All indicators are turning down after the up reaction wave 2. First target down is at 1267, but I do expect an up reaction soon. On Tuesday I did not close the open short position nor did I take a long position for 2 reasons: a reaction down in the indicators was already visible in the hourly chart, a lot of room for a further move down in the weekly chart and indicators at or below 50 in the daily chart. It was worthwhile waiting for the next day.

Now there is no close short position signal from STS8 (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE). The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% (with the low this week; a paper profit of 86.5%) from the start in March 2009. We have a 123-wave, wave 3.2 down. We have to consider that we possibly started a long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert system is black again, we have an open short position (more about the expert system SVEPRExp HERE ).

Weekly chart and Monthly chart and comments.

Stocata FOREX Update EUR/USD: June 2, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "The Euro fell out of the downward pitchfork. There is no sign yet that we should expect a reaction up. So there is a good chance that we will move once more a bit further down next week".

The expected move down was more than a bit. But Friday there was some recovery after reaching the 261.8% Fibonacci target and the lower side of a down moving pitchfork, creating a candlestick bullish engulfing pattern. About 6 of the 8 STS8 rules are confirming an up reaction, but we should wait for all 8 rules to comply (STS8 rules HERE). There is however a fair chance that we will get more up reaction next week.

We have to consider the possibility that the top in May 2011 was a long term top and that we started the long term wave down since then. My SVEPRExp expert is black. We are holding a short position with a paper profit now of 535 pips based on this expert. More information about this expert system HERE.

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: May 26, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "With 1295 we reach the target mentioned on the weekly chart last week. And here we said "the trend is down". With 5 times a lower low, this was certainly the case. We are falling out of the downward pitchfork and we are reaching support of the 200 day average. Next target down is around 1250, but I expect an up reaction before that with a correction wave 2 (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE) ".

We got an up correction to around 1330, close to what I thought would be a first target. There is no close short position signal from STS8 (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE). With about half of the STS8 rules you would expect a further up correction, but it is evenly possible that the downtrend will continue without a further correction now. The wave 2 correction is not yet confirmed. If we get a further up correction, it will probably move to between 1340 and 1350. Hard to predict next week, I believe there is a 50/50 change up or down.

The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% (with the low of the previous week; a paper profit of 86.5%) from the start in March 2009. We have a 123-wave, wave 3.1 down. We have to consider that it is not impossible that we started a long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert system remains black, we have an open short position (more about the expert system SVEPRExp HERE! Weekly chart HERE.

Stocata FOREX Update EUR/USD: May 26, 2012.

May 26, 2012: Last week I wrote: "Our short position was doing very well. The Euro fell beyond the target at 1.2753 but started an up correction Friday. I do expect a further correction in first instance towards 1.2830, back to the median line of the down moving pitchfork. A correction back to 1.30 should not be excluded. Longer term the trend remains down. There is no close short signal from my STS8 swing trading system".

With 1.2824 on Monday, we were close to the expected further up correction of 1.2830. The rest of the week was a strong move down confirming what I wrote last week "the trend remains down". The Euro fell out of the downward pitchfork. There is no sign yet that we should expect a reaction up. So there is a good chance that we will move once more a bit further down next week.

We have to consider the possibility that the top in May 2011 was a long term top and that we started the long term wave down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert is black. We are holding a short position. More information about this expert system HERE.

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: May 19, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "Reaching a low of 1343, we came very close to our mentioned target of 1340 the previous week. We have a new valid wave 3.1 down (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE). All indicators are moving down. There is support from the 100 day moving average and from the previous low of a wave 2. For next week there may be some up correction, but the trend is down! My swing trading system is in a down move (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE)".

With 1295 we reach the target mentioned on the weekly chart last week. And here we said "the trend is down". With 5 times a lower low, this was certainly the case. We are falling out of the downward pitchfork and we are reaching support of the 200 day average. Next target down is around 1250, but I expect an up reaction before that with a correction wave 2 (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE). There is no close short position signal from STS8 (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE).

The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% (now 86.5% including the paper profit) from the start in March 2009. We have a 123-wave, wave 3.1 down. We have to consider that it is not impossible that we started a long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert system remains black, we have an open short position with a nice paper profit (more about the expert system SVEPRExp HERE!

Stocata FOREX Update EUR/USD: May 19, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "As expected we had an up reaction on Monday as predicted by the hourly chart but the rest of the week there was a continuation of the down move. Indicators are oversold, so I do expect some consolidation, but the trend is down. The expert is black for a short position, a continuation that was already announced 2 weeks ago by the hourly chart".

Our short position was doing very well. The Euro fell beyond the target at 1.2753 but started an up correction Friday. I do expect a further correction in first instance towards 1.2830, back to the median line of the down moving pitchfork. A correction back to 1.30 should not be excluded. Longer term the trend remains down. There is no close short signal from my STS8 swing trading system (STS8 rules HERE).

We have to consider the possibility that the top in May 2011 was a long term top and that we started the long term wave down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert is black. But as written two weeks ago "in view of all resistance I keep the open short position for now", we are still holding the short position. More information about this expert system HERE and HERE.

Stocata S&P500 Technical Analysis: May 12, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "Because the stop loss just above the top 3.4 was not reached, we still have the short position open. Last Thursday the index fell again under the 8 day exponential average ready to continue the move down. All indicators are moving down and we have a confirmed wave 3 down, (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE). My expert system SVEPRExp turned red. The first target now is the 100 day average around 1340".

Reaching a low of 1343, we came very close to our mentioned target of 1340 the previous week. We have a new valid wave 3.1 down (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE). All indicators are moving down. There is support from the 100 day moving average and from the previous low of a wave 2. For next week there may be some up correction, but the trend is down! My swing trading system is in a down move (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE).

The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009. We have a valid 123-wave, wave 3 down. We have to consider that it is not impossible that we started a long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert system turned black, we have an open short position. Since not all conditions to close this short trade the previous week, the short position is still open and now confirmed by the expert system.

Stocata FOREX Update EUR/USD: May 12, 2012.

Last week I wrote: "With 160 pips down the past week, our expectation is fulfilled. We reached the 261.8% Fibonacci target in the hourly chart. We are now below all averages. We have a confirmed wave 3 down and we are moving towards the median line of a down moving pitchfork. All indicators are moving down. On Wednesday all STS8 rules were in favor of opening a short position which we already did based on the hourly chart last week. We can expect a further move down, probably after a short reaction in the hourly char

As expected we had an up reaction on Monday as predicted by the hourly chart but the rest of the week there was a continuation of the down move. Indicators are oversold, so I do expect some consolidation, but the trend is down. The expert is black for a short position, a continuation that was already announced 2 weeks ago by the hourly chart.

We have to consider the possibility that the top in May 2011 was a long term top and that we started the long term wave down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. My SVEPRExp expert is black. But as written two weeks ago "in view of all resistance I keep the open short position for now", we are still holding the short position now confirmed on the daily chart. More information about this expert system HERE and HERE.